Carlton Blues

Carlton conundrum: The scary stat that shows the real Blues

Is their so-called strength becoming a weakness?

Published by
Aidan Cellini

Carlton has long been lauded as the best clearance team in the competition, with many pundits believing their one-wood is stoppages and stoppages alone.

But is their so-called strength becoming a weakness?

The Blues have slumped to 11th spot with a 4-6 win-loss record after 10 weeks, but aside from a stirring win over Geelong, they haven't achieved much.

Fortunately, the IKON Park club's defence has been effective, ranking third for points against, only behind Gold Coast and Collingwood.

Carlton buoyed by Walsh return but looking at "bigger picture" amid midfield strugglesCarlton buoyed by Walsh return but looking at "bigger picture" amid midfield struggles
ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 06: Jacob Weitering of the Blues and Michael Voss, Senior Coach of the Blues celebrate during the 2024 AFL Round 04 match between the Fremantle Dockers and the Carlton Blues at Adelaide Oval on April 06, 2024 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

But on the other end, which boasts the likes of Coleman medallists Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, Michael Voss' men struggle to kick winning scores, sitting 12th for points for.

This isn't largely due to the twin towers that have led the competition in scores in recent years, nor the chorus of small forwards that aren't settled in Voss' forward line.

Carlton is fourth for average inside 50s, producing 55.5 per game, but converts only 11.3 of those entries into marks at a rate of 20.4 per cent.

In contrast, Adelaide, with their three-pronged attack, average just over one in four (26.1 per cent) marks per inside 50. Collingwood sits similarly in this conversation (25.7 per cent) while Hawthorn, with their small fleet and elite foot skills, are the best with 28.3 per cent.

Much can be made about these stats, but what do they mean? And how are they derived?

Clearances and ball transition.

In Carlton's case, they are one of the most dominant stoppage teams in the competition, but what most might see on any given week is their lack of efficiency.

The Blues are the league's best in gaining first possession from a clearance, boasting the likes of Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra, George Hewett and Sam Walsh in the midfield.

But converting that possession to an exit from stoppage is a major issue, with the club ranking 17th, only slightly ahead of Richmond, according to WheeloRatings.

The lack of effectiveness from clearance contributes heavily to the Voss' side's inability to score at will, failing to get good looks in front of goal, and more often than not, delivering shallow entries inside 50.

This contributes to a poor shot efficiency (scores/inside 50s) return, ranking last with 43.3 per cent.

Onlookers can see that the Carlton midfield likes to flick the ball around at stoppage, before undoubtedly bombing it away, sitting it on the heads of McKay and Curnow.

The modern game requires players driving out of stoppage to create overlap handball and ultimately a wave of teammates heading toward goal.

A dangerous tactic, it must be said, but when effective, it can be deadly.

Carlton doesn't have the foot skills or ball users to play like the Hawks or Crows.

So when they rely heavily on its content, and that is largely taken away by opposition, they have no other modes to go to.

The next month of football will be telling in the Blues' 2025 finals aspirations.

On Saturday, they take on an out-of-form Giants outfit at Marvel Stadium, with the loser placed among clubs likely to miss out on the top eight.

2025-05-24T02:35:00Z
GWS WON BY 28 POINTS
Marvel Stadium
CARL
82
FT
110
GWS

Following Carlton's bye in Round 12, clashes against Essendon, West Coast and North Melbourne to come, before a trip to South Australia to face Port Adelaide.

On paper, all five contests are winnable, and Voss' men should start as favourites in all of them.

But we all know it's never as easy as that.

Published by
Aidan Cellini