Since the current top eight finals system was introduced in 2000, an average of 2.8 new teams join the top eight every year, although that average has increased to 3.2 since 2010.
While no fewer than two new teams have ever risen to the challenge of September, it's more likely that three bottom-ten finishers in 2025 will exchange places with finalists from last year in 2026.
The AFL will officially introduce a new top 10 finals system in 2026, which features the Wildcard Finals Round between teams placed seventh through 10th, but this article will look at teams expected to rise into the top eight, given that positions 1-8 will still determine the core finals participants who receive significant advantages (such as a week off for the top six and home finals hosting rights for all eight), while 9th and 10th must win a high-stakes play-in on the road just to enter the traditional finals bracket.
2025 saw a significant change in the post-season fixtures, with four top eight sides - Sydney, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and Carlton - all falling from the finals.
Adelaide, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Collingwood were the rivals to claim a spot in September in their place.
Which clubs will fall, and which clubs will rise in 2026? Undertaking a view from a statistical perspective, here is what recent history suggests will be the change in order next year.
Who comes in?
Unsurprisingly, the teams knocking on the door from the season prior are able to burst into the top eight the next season. Both ninth- and tenth-placed teams have made the leap into September action nine times since 2010, eclipsing all other bottom-10 positions.
That trend continued last year with the Magpies and Dockers, and therefore bodes well for Sydney and the Bulldogs to not just play in Finals but potentially avoid the Wildcard Round altogether.
With Sydney's superstar recruit in Charlie Curnow and the Bulldogs' attack ranking as historically elite in 2025, many would view these teams' ascension as a certainty to occur should they remain largely healthy.
What is not guaranteed, however, is who joins them as the third side. While the 14th-placed team has made September the following year six times since 2010, it's unlikely that will occur in 2026, with the Melbourne Demons prioritising the development of young talent under newly appointed senior coach Steven King, as well as parting ways with two generational midfield talents in Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca this past off-season.
Therefore, expect one of St Kilda, Carlton or Port Adelaide to be the third team that ascends, with positions 11th through 13th jumping into the finals frame five times since 2010.
Out of the three, the Saints are perhaps most likely, given their influx of star talent during the trade period, but don't count out the Power, who may get their fiery edge back under Josh Carr's tutelage.
| Team Ladder Position | Times made finals after missing the year prior (since 2010) |
| 9th | 9 |
| 10th | 9 |
| 11th | 5 |
| 12th | 5 |
| 13th | 5 |
| 14th | 6 |
| 15th | 2 |
| 16th | 4 |
| 17th | 1 |
| 18th | 1 |
