AFL finals are built on moments. From a pair of stoppage bursts that set up goals to an unsung tag in the background of play, it's the little things that create confidence for a team's premiership-winning capabilities.
For the four teams playing this week, they all know too well how significant an x-factor player can be to achieving a September win - or, if it happens against you, ending your season.
For the Brisbane Lions, Geelong's Irish tagger Oisin Mullin's excellent presence on superstar midfielder Hugh McCluggage nullified his impact completely and saw the Cats dominate from centre bounce.
The Hawks nearly choked a 42-point lead after the Giants' super-sub Josh Kelly tilted Engie Stadium in GWS' favour in a crazy 15-minute flurry of scores while the Crows were unable to handle Jordan De Goey's impact inside the forward 50 last Thursday night.
So, who can be the unlikely difference maker for the four clubs taking centre stage this weekend?
Adelaide Crows - Alex Neal-Bullen
Neal-Bullen has been one of the many standout recruits for the Crows in recent years, but his expertise in September is what makes him such an exciting proposition ahead of their blockbuster semi-final with Hawthorn.
The 2021 premiership Demon has been here before, with his back against the wall and delivered on almost every occasion.
In 2021, Neal-Bullen recorded 27 disposals in the Demons' qualifying final win over Brisbane before kicking important majors in both the preliminary final and grand final as Melbourne broke the drought.
Despite the club's shortcomings in the two ensuing finals campaigns, Neal-Bullen was hardly at fault, kicking two clinical goals in the semi-final loss to Brisbane and contributing meaningfully the following year in the semi-final heartbreaker against Carlton, finishing with 18 disposals, five inside 50s and eight contested possessions.
In games where Neal-Bullen has kicked a goal, Adelaide has a record of 13 wins and one loss. That suggests if they get him involved on Friday night, there's every chance the 29-year-old can lift them to a spot in a preliminary final.
Hawthorn Hawks - Mitch Lewis
The last time the Hawks and Crows met, Hawthorn rolled out a lineup of four key forwards for the second time - and it nearly delivered, with the Hawks falling just shy of an impressive road win by 14 points.
This time, they'll be back to just the three key talls, with Calsher Dear out due to a hamstring concern. In his place will likely be Mitch Lewis, who has built strongly into the 2025 season since returning in Round 19.
Lewis' aerial threat is what looms as the biggest x-factor for the Hawks in this match. He's coming in hot off a four-goal bag in the VFL finals, and his presence deep inside 50 could not only leave the Crows' fullbacks under stress, but also opens up space for the Hawks' lively small forwards to create.
Things are clicking for the Hawks in their forward half, converting 50 per cent of their inside 50s into scores against GWS. How quickly Lewis can connect with his line mates in his senior side return is what ultimately could make or break Hawthorn's preliminary final hopes.
Brisbane Lions - Charlie Cameron
Brisbane has lost just once this season when Cameron has kicked multiple goals, and that was when the Crows downed the Lions by five points in Round 13, a game senior coach Chris Fagan later earmarked as one they should have won.
Against Geelong, Cameron kicked the opener, but his impact was largely absent thereafter as the Lions' inability to convert inside 50 cost them dearly, scoring on just 42.6 per cent of their forward 50 entries compared to Geelong's 55 per cent.
It points toward why Cameron's goal scoring is so crucial to Brisbane's success and why his play could define the Lions' premiership defence as they line up against the Suns this weekend.
Cameron has been equally hot as he has been cold in 2025, going goalless as many times as he's kicked at least two majors. Gold Coast have experienced both versions of this and, perhaps unsurprisingly, lost the match where Cameron kicked three.
With an inexperienced forward line and an untimely depleted playing list, the Lions need a veteran presence to step up and lead from the front. Cameron is exactly the guy they need to do that.
Gold Coast - Bailey Humphrey
If there's any player that's the definition of an X-factor, it's Bailey Humphrey. The 20-year-old forward only needs a few moments to win a game with his electric goal-scoring and creation inside 50s, a trait that was evident in last week's elimination final against Fremantle.
Humphrey turned the game on its head in the second quarter, cashing in three majors in the term to extend Gold Coast's margin to 25 points at the main break while also contributing to another score via an inside 50. His dominant patch sucked the life out of a raucous Fremantle home crowd and arguably was the match-winner for the Suns on the night.
His ability to inflict damage on the opposition in intense patches is something Brisbane are all too familiar with. During the Suns' 66-point trouncing of the Lions in Round 20, Humphrey inflicted eight score involvements, his third-highest tally of the season, which included three goals of his own, his first one of Gold Coast's five second-quarter goals, which ballooned the margin out to 33 points by half-time.
If Humphrey's damaging crumbing ability is anything to go by, the Lions should be carefully planning for his impact come Saturday night.
