We're here. September. The mark all 18 clubs have worked toward, with less than half of the competition remaining.
Across the course of this season the sway in premiership contention has favoured some sides more often than others, with the likes of Geelong, Melbourne and Sydney dominant from the offset.
Late bloomers in Collingwood, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs now sit level, with the regular season well and truly in the rearview mirror.
But in reflection of the home and away season that was, while all remaining eight sides can stake their claim for the flag, each has at least one weakness that could be amplified in the heat of battle.
With this in mind, we cast our eye over the reasons why all eight finals contenders CAN, and CAN'T, win the 2022 AFL premiership flag.
Geelong
Can - List balanceย
What has elevated Geelong this season is their spread of dominance across the field, with attack, defence and midfield all ranking among the AFL's best for 2022 to pave their way to the minor premiership.
The exciting thing about their midfield ensemble is that is no longer relies on a handful of star names, with the likes of Tom Atkins, Mark Blicavs and Brandan Parfitt earning a greater piece of the pie.
The Cats rank No.1 in the competition for clearances, which comes as a result of leading the league for both centre and stoppage clearance totals. Not only does this equate to Chris Scott's side leading the AFL for inside 50s, but it has placed Geelong as the side who have conceded the fewest entries into their defence 50.
Their high rate of entries into attack gives the opposition no chance to rest, with Tom Hawkins (86) and Jeremy Cameron (65) sitting first and third in the competition for marks inside 50 as the Cats move the ball forward.
At their feet? All-Australian forward pocket Tyson Stengle. The former Crow and Tiger joined the Cats this season and has flourished to earn an AA blazer alongside Hawkins, Cameron, Blicavs and Tom Stewart.
The latter duo have again been stalwarts for Scott's rearguard, however Blicavs has been given the freedom to roam the field and apply himself in several differing roles thanks to the emergence of young key defender Sam de Koning, another golden find by the Kardinia Park club.
Can't - Recent struggles to deliver when it counts
Yes, a somewhat obvious one for the Cats is their downfall come September.
Stunningly, Chris Scott hasn't celebrated on the dais since his opening season at the Cattery 11 years ago despite reaching only missing the top eight once (2015), and rechign the preliminary final stage on six occasions.
As mentioned above, there is something different when it comes to their 2022 squad. but the same can be said when comparing their narrow misses of 2013 to that of seven or eight years later.
While it won't mount pressure on the minor premiers, history suggests the Cats could face further shortcomings this season. Since the inception of the pre-finals bye Geelong has recorded six top-four finishes from a possible seven, with the added break at times leave the club to feature in just the one game across a near month-long period.
That's not to say the sole reason for their downfall is due to the added rest, nor is it the main reason, with what Geelong have also succumbed to is second-half lapses. Twice against the Tigers in fact.
2019's suffocation saw Richmond march to another grand final, while the year after Geelong failed to hold on to a healthy lead in the season decider to allow successive flags to land at Punt Road.
It seems each season a new weakness arises in Geelong's premiership pursuit, with something extraordinary needing to unfold in the next month for history to repeat itself.
Melbourne
Can - Defence, home ground advantage
The backline trio of Steven May, Jake Lever and Harrison Petty are pivotal cogs in Melbourne's premiership defence. May, recently awarded for his impressive 2022 campaign with an All Australian blazer, is averaging 19.1 disposals, 5.7 spoils and 2.9 intercept marks per game this season, forming a formidable wall in defence.
Heading into the 2021 finals series, Melbourne's defensive team were ranked among the best in the league. With their defensive 50 looking solid, even at stages while the rest of the team seemed to falter this year, Melbourne fans should have plenty of optimism heading into finals.
Another benefit for the surging Demons, their home ground advantage. Having finished second on the ladder, the Dees are guaranteed to play all their finals matches on the hallowed surface of the MCG. While Melbourne did win their drought-breaking 2021 premiership away from home in Perth, there's no doubt that the minimal travel will be a benefit amid the finals series.
Can't - Inconsistency against top teams
Melbourne opened their season with a stunning run of ten victories in a row, firmly placing themselves in the premiership favourites category in the first half of the season.
The Demons did face a tough draw in 2022 after their premiership win last year. From Round 11 (a game they lost to Fremantle), they faced nine top eight teams, managing to win four of them.
The most convincing wins came against the inconsistent Lions, 64 points in Round 15 and 58 points in Round 23. While when facing the other two members of the top four, the Demons lost by 12 points (Sydney) and 28 points (Geelong).
Should they lose to the Swans first up, they'll end up potentially having to face off against the Cats in a prelim to book a grand final spot. If the Demons can recapture their early season form, their September looks in good shape, but there's plenty of doubts about their ability to perform against the best of the best.
Sydney
Can - Record against top eight
After starting their season with two losses and the sole win against eventual top-eight sides by Round 7, the Swans have turned on their September foes to record the equal best win-loss tally among sides still in the hunt.
Defeats to the Bulldogs and Lions raised early question marks over their premiership prospects, however the pair of defeats were countered whe reflecting on the Swans' Round 2 win over eventual minor premiers Geelong.
By the time Sydney had reached their bye round they had added another two scalps in the form of Richmond and Melbourne, the latter coming at the MCG in what was a statement win.
Those wins would only be the start of a 5-0 run against top eight sides, with the Swans getting revenge on the Bulldogs at the SCG, snatching four points against the Dockers in Perth a week later, and eventually snapping Collingwood's 11-game winning run in the penultimate round of the regular season.
Their six wins came at an average deficit of four goals, with Sydney proving to show an ability to dismantle their fellow contenders. Well, all but Brisbane.
Their Round 12 win against the Demons will give the Swans some confidence ahead of their return to the home of football, with another win seeing John Longmire's side just one more game away from returning to the biggest stage of them all.
Can't - Unfamiliarity with the MCG
In the past five years, the Swans have played just nine of their 112 AFL fixtures at the MCG.
It hasn't always been an issue for them however, recording six wins and three losses across this period, but it should be noted that only one of their trips to footy's heartland came with a crowd north of 60,000 - a 10-point loss to Essendon in 2019.
2022 saw the Swans feature at the MCG on just two occasions, one being another lost to the Bombers in what was arguably the club's low point of the season.
The other? Their Round 12 win over the Demons. But that attendance total of 32,753 fans, a majority of which clad in red and blue, is sure to be at least doubled come Friday night.
Their past decade of form against the Dees, and to that at the MCG, reads much stronger. But going beyond the past several seasons sees us matching up one of this generation's greatest sides with one of its worst. Not quite the same as what we've come to expect of the Swans, and Demons, in recent years.
Another question to be raised across the Swans' past five seasons is their finals record, having featured in two post-seasons for a return of two defeats and no wins.
For a side perhaps with much to prove on the big stage, the Swans are needing to overcome some hurdles that have hurt them in the past.
Collingwood
Can - Belief, Pressure
The Pies have been phenomenal under pressure this year, winning a remarkable nine matches by less than ten points. There's no doubt that when the Pies are down, they believe they can still win the game, they've done it enough times.
Their Round 23 performance against Carlton only helped instil this belief heading into finals, cutting down a 24 point deficit to get across the line by just one point. Finals footy is a different kind of beast entirely, but the masters of chaos footy should have no doubts that they'll be able to handle the pressure.
Collingwood rank third competition wide in tackles and second in team to opponent tackles inside 50, averaging 2.1 more tackles inside 50 per game than their opponent.
The ruck duo of Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox are also in good form, giving the side extra depth down back when needed.
Can't - High risk, high reward game plan
Collingwood's high risk, high reward kind of game plan got them in finals in the first place, but it may not work as they come up against the best of the best in September.
The Pies love to move the ball quickly up the ground and head inside 50 through the middle of the ground, but leave themselves vulnerable in defence should a turnover occur.
Finals footy is frantic, and should the Pies be unable to execute the game plan that has worked so successfully throughout the home and away season, they may find themselves unable to stop the opposition scoring from turnovers.
In addition to that though, is that the Pies face Geelong first up. The Cats won their last encounter way back in Round 3 and have been in formidable form since then. Should they lose, they'll have to make their way to the grand final the long way, with their game plan forced to hold up in four matches to claim the flag.
Fremantle
Can - Defenceย
The Dockers defence held up well for the majority of the year, leaving them heading into finals as one of the higher ranked teams defensively.
Justin Longmuir's men conceded the second least amount of overall points throughout the home and away season (averaging a concession of 67.5 points per game), and their back six holds up well under pressure, managing to restrict scoring once their opponent is inside 50.
The defensive unit performs well individually and cohesively, with Brennan Cox (6.1 spoils, 2.4 intercept marks per game) excelling, while rebound defender Luke Ryan (seven marks, 455.2 metres gained per game) is a vital piece of the defensive puzzle.
Ranked fifth for least opponent inside 50's and first in least opponent goal assists per game, should the Dockers win the flag, it will be off the back of their defensive work.
Can't - Scoring
Heading into finals, Fremantle rank 11th in the competition for inside 50s per game and 12th for average goals scored, the lowest of any team contending in September.
The Dockers' ball movement heading up the ground has been a cause of concern for most of the season and their inconsistent ability to put massive scores on the board may be an issue.
Throughout the home and away season, Fremantle managed to score over 100 points on just three occasions and now rank 16th league wide in marks inside 50 per game
Their highest goal scorer for the home and away season, Rory Lobb, kicked 34 goals, with Lachlan Schultz coming in second place with 28.
Forward spearhead Lobb heads into finals under a fitness cloud, while Matt Taberner is still yet to be confirmed in the side as he continues his recovery from a calf injury. Much has been made of Freo's ability to play in the wet, and with a potentially damp day on the horizon for their elimination final, this may only exacerbate their forward line problems.
Brisbane
Can - Ability to bounce backย
Following all seven of Brisbane's losses this season the club has been able to return to winning ways the week after, a trend Chris Fagan will be hoping continues on Thursday night.
Their six wins after a defeat strike a mean buffer of 26 points, including a 41-point win over the Western Bulldogs in Round 16 and a 33-point victory against the Blues a month ago.
The Lions have shown an ability to respond after a fall, and will be hopeful to return to some ascendency following their second-largest defeat of the season in Round 23.
Abe to shift back into top gear will be crucial for the Lions, but they can't be baking on a tough defeat to find their best football in September.
Can't - Inability to stay level with top contendersย ย
A 3-5 record against fellow finals clubs doesn't bode well for Brisbane heading into September, and neither does their patch of form leading into it.
The Lions' 58-point defeat at the hands of Melbourne in Round 23 seemed to be a clear sign of the disparity between the Queensland club and the benchmark for other contenders, with the Demons picking apart Brisbane's ball movement with ease.
The defeat has placed Chris Fagan's side in a 'win or go home' fixture against Richmond, a side that wiped out a seven-goal deficit in Round 20 to win by seven points at the final siren.
A win from there would see the Lions head to either the MCG to face Melbourne or fly to Sydney in a bout with the Swans, a pair of opponents the Lions are unlikely to be favoured against no matter the outcome of their victory over the Tigers.
They have a forward line that any club would crave, but a backline that has failed to plug up gaps is sure to be another concern for Brisbane.
The loss of Marcus Adams may not have been talked about enough in recent days, leaving the sizeable role to tame Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt, among others, to the likes of Jack Payne, Darcy Gardiner and Harris Andrews.
Their finals record, despite its recent advantages at home, also isn't pretty reading. There's plenty for the Lions to overcome in order to taste premiership glory.
Richmond
Can - Been there, done that
With spring on the verge of springing and 19 fit premiership winners to call on come Thursday, Damien Hardwick's mood is likely brighter than a Brisbane afternoon.
Add in his Tigers' ability to post more than 120 points on average to round out the regular season, and the return of Dustin Martin is now just a maraschino atop his sundae.
Though the Tigers were forced into hibernation last September after opting to blood several cubs due to injury, Richmond's business-end credentials are plain to see for every side still in with a shot.
Without the aid of a double-chance, this September has already taken on a different complexion, but having been there, done that and sold the premiership T-shirts, if any side outside of the four must be seen as a threat, it has to be the Tigers.
Can't - Shackles of youth
Although Richmondโs nous remains their greatest strength ahead of their fifth finals foray in six seasons, the green pockets within the Punt Road locker room may act as a banana peel.
During their belting of the Bombers to round out the regular season, the Tigers took to the MCG with five names without any September experience โ Cumberland, Sonsie, Gibcus, Miller and Rioli.
While each of these cubs has earned their stripes throughout the course of 2022, with their form warranting selection, their presence sees Richmondโs overall experience noticeably eroded.
Of course, this injection of youth will only be seen as a negative for subscribers of the theory that finals football is a different ball game.
But with a tough route from seventh to the summit now starkly before them, heading into battle with numerous untested quantities may prove to be an untimely hindrance.
Still, as members of the Tiger Army will attest to, Marlion Pickett never required a ream of senior experience before landing his first medallion.
Western Bulldogs
Can - History broken
Off the back of Carltonโs late capitulation to Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs were able to snap a historic ill that stretched back to the mid-50s.
Having played off in grand finals in each of 1954, 1961, 2016, the Whitten Oval side failed to back up their deeds the following season, striking out each time before the start of September.
While having to call on unconventional means to book their ticket to Perth, the burden has been lifted from the Bullies back and with many of the Dockersโ stocks unfamiliar with the finals, a chance to redeem their Optus Stadium sins is available to Luke Beveridgeโs unbridled side.
And with their flag of six seasons ago won from seventh, a unit that still contains 10 Pups with premiership credentials, few fears will be held of having to do things the hard way.
The Bulldogs have absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain, a dangerous prospect for opponents, indeed.
Can't - History intact
Although the Dogs' ascent to glory in 2016 came from the unlikely slot of seventh, history is staked against the team of the mighty west, with no team having won the flag from any further south.
Given their outside lane, the Pups will need to remain perfect for the entirety of September if they are to add a third cup to their previously scant cabinets.
And without the aid of their most pugnacious ball winner, Tom Liberatore, their chances of success across the Nullarbor have already slimmed.
Add in the fact that key defender Alex Keath hasnโt seen senior action since Round 21 โ a 17-point defeat to the Dockers โ and the prospect of quelling Fremantleโs three-headed offence in Lobb, Logue and Taberner has noticeably dimmed.
The Dogsโ average score of just 73.3 across the final month of the season hardly bodes for future heroics either.
