Footy is almost back, albeit now with an underwhelming start due to the postponement of the Queensland-based games, however four clubs will still take the field this weekend to launch a highly-anticipated 2025 campaign.
For each club, particular statistical categories can be the key difference-maker for the game, and dominating or falling behind in a certain metric can indicate whether the game is on their terms.
Whether it be through clearance work, rebounding off half-back or chains of uncontested possessions, there are statistics that define the brand of football your club plays.
Let's take a look at the two matches that kick off season 2025, and what stats will be the key to pulling off an Opening Round win.
Sydney vs Hawthorn
Sydney - scores off turnover
This metric is where the Swans excelled in 2024, and what created the bulk of their scoring prowess.
Leading the league for points per game in 2024, the Swans scored 55.1 of their points off turnovers per game on average, also ranked number one in the competition.
While the last time they faced Hawthorn was before the Hawks turned the tide, the Swans' corralling pressure forced 68 turnovers from Hawthorn, resulting in 28 scoring shots for Sydney and a 76-point win.
If Sydney are unable to score off turnover however, their attacking spark can be quelled. The Swans struggled to convert transition opportunities in the grand final, let alone provide themselves with opportunities to transition in general. Brisbane had just 53 turnovers for the match, nine less than their season average, and in turn, the Swans recorded just 15 shots on goal.
Port Adelaide's ability to pressure Hawthorn's ball carrier in the semi-final forced uncharacteristic errors and sloppy decision-making, leading to multiple turnover scoring opportunities for the Power. Opening Round will undoubtedly have a similar intensity to begin the season, creating an environment for Sydney to swarm the Hawks and apply the same pressure that forces mistakes.
With Dean Cox at the helm, the long-time assistant is ready to implement stronger defensive strategies in 2025. If the Swans can force turnovers similarly to Port Adelaide's semi-final efforts and transition them into scoring opportunities, it will indicate a revamped defence under Cox.
Hawthorn - uncontested possessions
The Hawks demonstrated that surging football was a key part of their rejuvenated brand that saw them leapfrog the competition into the top eight last season.
With a 'mosquito fleet' of gut-running small forwards, the Hawks' uncontested handball chains are exciting to watch and dangerous for opposition backlines.
Hawthorn were comprehensively outplayed in their Round 7 clash against Sydney last season and played a stagnant brand that was difficult to create attacking opportunities.
Recording 76 fewer uncontested possessions than the Swans, Hawthorn were unable to create fluent overlapping runs into the forward half, and were thus held to just 42 points.
Towards the end of the season, Hawthorn's change of play style was evident. Against quality clubs Collingwood, Carlton and the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn recorded 251, 309, and 254 uncontested possessions - dozens more than their efforts in Round 7.
However, in their two final losses in the season against GWS and Port Adelaide, Hawthorn recorded just 215 and 199 uncontested possessions. In the latter game, Hawthorn were afforded no time and space, drastically impacting their scoring output.
If Hawthorn are to pull off an almighty away win to start 2025, they'll have to create space for chains of uncontested possessions to ensure they can play the game on their terms.
GWS vs Collingwood
GWS - rebound 50s
The Giants ranked second in 2024 for rebound 50s, a metric that is a big indicator of whether they are controlling the tempo of the game.
Coined the 'Orange Tsunami', GWS' waves of counterattacking play are difficult to defend.
Heading into Opening Round undermanned due to injuries and suspensions, the importance of maintaining structure and a consistent game plan will be necessary for a side likely to be building chemistry with new recruits, debutants, and filling the void of the departed.
The Giants are fortunate to have depth in the backline and forward 50, but are slightly weaker in the midfield with ageing veterans Callan Ward and Stephen Coniglio, and the absence of Tom Green this weekend.
The piercing kicks and dashing run from rebounding half-backs Lachie Whitfield, Harrison Himmelberg and Lachie Ash will be crucial in developing attacking plays, all averaging over four per game in 2024.
With a host of youngsters likely to play in Opening Round, the experienced defenders will play a key part in spurring GWS' formidable attack.
Collingwood - inside 50s
Last year, despite not boasting a true key forward beyond Dan McStay, Collingwood averaged a scoring shot from 48.1% of their inside 50s, an AFL-best average.
An unheralded category, the Magpie-dominated metric is a telling indicator for successful clubs. If they continue their inside 50 efficiency in 2025, Collingwood will be on their way to an Opening Round victory.
However, the general inside 50 count is the more intriguing prospect for the Opening Round clash. While there is proof of Collingwood's efficiency inside 50, which can be expected to continue with the addition of Tim Membrey, Collingwood still failed to make finals in 2024, which could be attributable to their lack of inside 50 entries.
Collingwood ranked 12th for inside 50s last year (49.8 per game), placing above only the bottom six sides on the ladder, accentuating that high quantities of forward arc entries play a significant role for successful teams.
However, with the additions of Dan Houston and Harry Perryman, players that average 3.5 and 1.6 inside 50s per game respectively, as well as 5.1 and 4.1 rebound 50s, Collingwood have bolstered their list to drive more punts into the forward arc.
While their pre-season match was only against Richmond, the Pies showed promising signs of recovering from their premiership hangover, recording 53 inside 50s and scoring at a rate of 50.9%.
Six of these entries came fromย Perryman, while Houston tacked on three, providing an encouraging glimpse of what the new recruits can offer.
In Opening Round, a similar performance will surely see Collingwood take home the four points, but they'll need others to lift in Houston's absence.
