Across the past few seasons of the AFL, clear statistical trends have emerged that indicate whether a team is truly built for September.
While every side approaches the game slightly differently, the data consistently shows that success comes from mastering three key areas.
We take a look at the metrics recent premiers thrived in, and how they shaped their September success.
Scoring from front-half turnover
The ability to score from turnover in the front half has become one of the most accurate indicators of success in the modern game. The best teams are proving to be those that can create opposition mistakes closest to goal and capitalise on those opportunities.
These scores are the result of forward pressure and well-drilled defensive systems.
When analysing a team's score origin and score sources, you can often deduce how successful a team has been or will be.
Richmond (2017-2020): Damien Hardwick was one of the masterminds behind the blueprint of front-half, turnover-focused football. The front-half pressure applied by his mosquito fleet of Jason Castagna, Dan Butler, Liam Baker, Daniel Rioli, Kane Lambert and Shai Bolton was incredibly valuable in the Tigers' golden run.
Outside of 2017, when they finished third in score from turnover, they were the highest scoring team from turnover from 2018 to 2020. They averaged almost 60 points per game from turnover in this period (excludes COVID-19 affected 2020 season).
Brisbane (2024, 2025 premiers): The Lions have been among the leaders in scoring from front-half turnovers across the past two seasons, propelling them to back-to-back premierships.
In 2024 they scored an average of 53 points per game from turnover (2nd in the competition), while in 2025 they scored 52.1 points per game (4th). In 2025, 46 points per game originated in their front half (=3rd), while it was 47.1 points per game in 2025 (2nd).
Geelong (2022 premiers): Chris Scott's 2022 premiership team were the most dominant front-half team all year. 49.3 points per game originated in the front half (1st), while 60.1 points per game came from turnover (2nd).
Defensive half to forward 50
Teams now have to be adept at transitioning the ball from their defensive half to their forward 50. Modern football has essentially become a territory game, and it is becoming evident that successful teams are those that can win back territory after being forced to defend.
Effective transition from the defensive half to forward 50 is what ultimately separates sides that control territory from those that are forced to defend for long periods.
Brisbane (2024, 2025 premiers): In both premiership years, Brisbane have been the best team at transitioning the ball from their defensive half to their forward 50. This has been achieved mainly through their ability to chain the ball through uncontested marks, averaging 96.2 per game in 2025 and 99.6 in 2024 (1st both years).
Collingwood (2023 premiers): In 2023, eventual premiers Collingwood were the second best team in the competition at transitioning the ball from their back half to forward 50.
Geelong (2022 premiers): Dominant 2022 premiership winners Geelong were also capable of transitioning the ball effectively from their back half to their forward 50, finishing first in the competition that year.
Retaining the ball by foot
Retaining the ball by foot is another defining trait of premiership teams. If you control possession, you control the game. The data from the past five seasons reinforces this, with every genuine contender ranking near the top of the competition for kick retention.
In the modern game where so much emphasis is placed on defence, poor ball use is often the fastest way to concede scores. Teams that use the ball efficiently are able to force the opposition into defending for extended periods. The last four seasons are evidence of this:
Lions (2024, 2025 premiers): 1st and 6th overall respectively. The Lions' composed users in the back half have been crucial in their ability to control the ball by foot. Dayne Zorko, Jaspa Fletcher and Darcy Wilmot are names that spring to mind and were instrumental on Grand Final Day.
Collingwood (2023 premiers): 4th overall. It was Collingwood's midfielders who were instrumental at retaining the ball by foot in their 2023 premiership run. Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and the Daicos brothers all rated highly for kick retention.
Geelong (2022 premiers): 1st overall. Geelong did it differently in 2022, being able to retain the ball exceptionally well in their front half and went on to average an impressive 15 marks per game inside 50 (1st in the competition). Jeremy Cameron, Gryan Miers, Tom Hawkins and Brad Close all rated very highly in kick retention.
So who fits the bill in 2026?
Scoring from front-half turnovers, transitioning the ball out of defensive 50 and retaining possession by foot now form the foundation of modern football. The ability to transition efficiently, maintain control and punish opposition mistakes once the footy arrives in attack now defines the competition's best teams. History suggests that sides that master all three are genuine contenders. These are the teams that could prove dangerous in 2026:
- Geelong: Although convincingly beaten on Grand Final Day and plenty being made of their ageing list profile, the numbers suggest the Cats will be around the mark again. They were ranked first in scores from turnover, scores originating in the front half and kick retention, while they were third in transitioning the ball from their back half to forward 50.
- Bulldogs: Although they didn't even play finals, the Dogs' numbers are impressive. They were top three in scores originating in the front half, kick retention, scores from turnover and transition from their back half to forward 50. If they can tidy up their contested work (second highest uncontested possession rate in the competition), they should be around the mark this year.
- Adelaide: Transformed themselves into an elite front-half scoring team in 2025. Ranked in the top five for scores from turnover and scores originating in the front-half.
- Brisbane: Consistently the best team in all three areas across the past two seasons. A three-peat wouldn't surprise.
The false contender
- Fremantle: The Dockers managed a sixth-place finish in 2025, and on paper look primed to improve off that with their young and improving list. But the numbers suggest otherwise. 11th in scores originating from their front half, eighth in transitioning the ball from their defensive half to forward 50 and 17th in retention by foot.
