The big questions facing every club in Round 4

With the first month of the AFL season drawing to a close, narratives for all of the competition's 18 teams have begun to arise. Whilst some are struggling and others are thriving, you can bet your bottom dollar that each of the league's list of polo shirt wearing pedagogues will still be desperate for improvement this weekend. With this in mind, here are the key quandaries facing every AFL club ahead of Round 4. Adelaide How long will the ‘Walker-thon' last? Look, we didn't expect this to be the case either, but yes, Adelaide veteran Taylor Walker is leading the Coleman Medal race after three rounds. With a total of 26 shots, resulting in 17 goals, eight behinds and one miss altogether, the 30-year-old is splitting the big sticks at a staggering average of 65%. https://twitter.com/AFL/status/1375677033217290243 The question on everyone's mind is just how long the Broken Hill product can keep it going for. If you run your eyes over Walker's career statistics, you will find that 2015 was a career year for the spearhead in terms of total shots for goal (104) and 2012 his finest for majors (63) – aggregates that will be surpassed if Tex continues his current trend. https://twitter.com/zerohanger/status/1379380895505866752 Statistical trends may be obvious to the naked eye, but ask any economist and they are likely to tell you that predicting future growth is a much tougher task. Still, let's try anyway. Adelaide's next three opponents are North Melbourne, Fremantle and Hawthorn – teams that Walker averages 4.2, 3.6 and 3.2 shots per game against respectively. The mustachioed marauder also has a mean of 2.2, 2.7 and 1.9 majors per occasion against the trio lifetime. Although it would appear ludicrous to try and combine past trends with current form, if Walker is able to simply meet his career averages until the end of Round 6, his season tally for shots will stand at 36 and his haul of goals at 22. This rough prediction does allow for both a dip in current output, but respectfully sees Walker reach his own past benchmarks. Either way, if extrapolated, it does see the former skipper finish the home and away season just shy of 80 goals. As mentioned, predicting the future in a statistical sense is challenging, so whether his numbers continue to rise, they plateau or they trough, I for one am excited to see what next week brings. Brisbane Can they use Thursday's win as a launching pad? Had Zac ‘The Rat King' Bailey sprayed his post siren set shot wide last Thursday, we would not be having this conversation, but as we all know, the Sherrin could not have flown truer off his right boot. https://twitter.com/AFL/status/1377580844714323969 These are the fine margins of AFL football. Having avoided a 0-3 start by the skin of the South Australian's missing incisor, the Lions are not only on the board in 2021, but are also on the launching pad. Whether or not they take off like 12-months ago is another point altogether. Across the next month of the season, Brisbane are fixtured to face the Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton and Port Adelaide – teams they had a 4-0 record against in 2020. With the Lion's list arguably stronger – except for the loss of Cameron Rayner for the season – than last year, there is no reason why the same quadrella cannot be completed again. Seemingly, the key to their success remains at the humongous, yet sidelined feet of Oscar McInerney. Should the 26-year-old be passed fit for Saturday afternoon's battle in Ballarat, he will face off against the man he usurped – Stefan Martin. https://twitter.com/AFL/status/1375373525586866183 Against Collingwood last week, Brisbane's makeshift tap work pair of Tom Fullarton and Connor Ballenden combined for just four hitouts, but conceded 63 to Brodie Grundy and Mason Cox. If McInerney is ruled unfit and this aforementioned duo is rolled out against Martin and Tim English, expect the Bulldog's mile deep engine room to feast. If the former Casey Scorpion is included and a rucking parity is found, the game is set to be a corker. Brisbane's maroon painted rocket may be on the launching pad, but it is a 204cm, rookie draft selection that currently sits in its pilot's seat. Carlton Can they maintain their reversal? Across their first two games of 2021, against Richmond and Collingwood respectively, Carlton have posted an average of: 361.5 Disposals per game 132.5 Contested possessions 221 Uncontested possessions 12 Goals 50 Inside 50s 37 Clearances 39 Tackles On Sunday afternoon against Fremantle, the Blues not only secured their first four points of the year, but they also surpassed their previous means in each of these aforesaid categories. https://twitter.com/CarltonFC/status/1378656576140013575 With the five highest disposal winners on the ground wearing navy blue (Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Ed Curnow and Lachlan Fogarty) and all but eight of their 22-man squad recording multiple tackles, the ills of the first fortnight appear to have been rectified. Still, the external pressure on the Blues is not going to dissipate just yet, as a benchmark has now been created. Should Teague's men return to their previous poor form against Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Essendon over the next month, expectant punters and critical pundits are likely to once again return the blowtorch to the playing group. Performing a task once proves ability. Performing it repetitively shows maturity. So, in the words of ‘The Chemical Brothers', do it again, Carlton. Collingwood How much are they likely to rue Thursday's loss? At 1-2, Collingwood, like a pair of other 2020 finalists in the Saints and Lions, are behind the eight ball early. The Woodsman may have been able to convert at better than 65% in front of goal during Thursday night's final stanza, but having conceded 22-points - including six after the final siren – to their opponents, the four points vanished like the first pint of the weekend. Although Nathan Buckley's mischief of Magpies were able to convert their inside 50s into scores at a better rate than Chris Fagan's pride, over the small sample size of 2021, Collingwood are ranked the second worst team in the competition at getting the ball into their forward arc. https://twitter.com/CollingwoodFC/status/1379617354556956674 On a more positive note, there are only three teams better at stopping the ball from flying into the opposite arc. Put simply, the Pies may deny sides from creating chances, but when the shoe is on the other foot, they seem determined to shoot at it. Across the next three weeks, Bucks' boys are set to face the Giants, Eagles and Bombers – three teams outside the top 10 for generating I50s this year. With this in mind, Collingwood's back six should have a fighter's chance, or better, against each of these sides, but it is the output at the other end of the ground that has perennially proven a worry, as an average score of 77-points per week isn't going to trouble the competition's best sides. Despite missing out on a 2-1 start to the season by the barest of margins, Buckley and his coaching staff cannot paper over the cracks. With one of the competition's toughest fixtures this year and a forward line that produces a mean of just 11 goals per game, even if Zac Bailey had sprayed his post siren shot, Collingwood's work would still be cut out for them. Essendon Where did that come from? Right, it worked for Carlton, so we are going again. Across their first two games of 2021, against Hawthorn and Port Adelaide respectively, Essendon have posted an average of: 359 Disposals per game 131.5 Contested possessions 223 Uncontested possessions 11 Goals 51.5 Inside 50s 28.5 Clearances 62 Tackles On Saturday evening against Fremantle, the Bombers not only secured their first four points of the year, but they also surpassed their previous means in five of these seven aforesaid categories. https://twitter.com/essendonfc/status/1378858239727529984 Ben Rutten's boys may have boosted their disposal, uncontested possession, inside 50, clearance and goals per game averages, but their contested possession and tackle counts dropped. Still, when you hold the ball for 16 more minutes than your insipid opponent, this is bound to be the case. It is easy to say that the Bomber blitzkrieg came of the back of St. Kilda's listless ‘efforts' across their Round 3 encounter, but although many of Essendon's names had days out, they did eventuate under minimal duress. Despite this, the rock-solid Jordan Ridley down back, Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett running rampant through the middle and a fit and firing Jake Stringer in the forward line were without doubt the catalysts in a performance than saw the Dons lead for all but a minute of game time. With the 3-0 Swans awaiting the Bombers this Thursday night, Rutten will be hoping that the same intensity can be brought by his young side after just a four-day rest. With a mixed bag of clashes against Brisbane, Collingwood, Carlton and the Giants in the month to follow, those of us beyond the boundary line are likely to find out whether last Saturday was the dawning of an upward trend or simply an outlier. If it is to be the latter, Dons fans, don't stress too much - it's not often a rebuilding side wins games by more than 12 goals. Fremantle Are they the AFL's biggest ‘Jekyll & Hyde' side? With an unbeaten 2021 record at their craypot like haven in Perth and an inability to win after crossing the Western Australian border, the Fremantle Dockers have begun to earn the reputation of footballing agoraphobics. Although this season's sample size could still fit in ones palm, the performance Justin Longmuir's men dished up against Carlton has done nothing to dispel the theory. https://twitter.com/freodockers/status/1378619290924904451 Since 2019, the Purple Haze have played 42 games of football. Of these contests, 19 have been home games in Perth for a record of 11-8. When looking at away games, this record sits at 6-17 from 23 starts. Sure, Justin Longmuir has only been in charge of their list for 20 of these fixtured clashes, and sure, COVID-19 restrictions saw the Dockers play far more football away from their western abode than normal. However, in ‘J-Lo's tenure, the ledger still sits at 4-4 at home and 4-8 when asked to wear their clash strip. These numbers are damning for a side that many feel should be breaking into the eight this year, and as they have another eight games fixtured away from Optus yet to complete, some alterations to their travelling mindset must be made. Still, with the Hawks scheduled to fly to Perth this weekend, history suggests the purple portion of Perth will departing their home ground with smiles on Sunday evening. If not, it only adds another layer to the club's Robert Louis Stevenson-esqe nature. Geelong Should their ‘go slow' style continue to get the go ahead? Despite the pre-season rule tinkering designed to speed up the game and increase scorer's workloads, Chris Scott and his glaring of Cats have stuck to their guns – just not the starter's one. Despite their game plan appearing far more tortoise than it is hare, Scott has stuck fat with the possession-based style that saw his side within touching distance at the start of last season's final quarter. Entering the final week of the season's first month, the hoops have accumulated a 2-1 record, a percentage just shy of 98 and the lion's share of the football across their 360-minutes of game time. Ahead of their Round 4 clash against the unbeaten Demons, the Cats have met the initial criteria needed to play Scott's slow and steady style, by remaining in possession of the Sherrin for an average of 42% of game time. What has been shedding the feline footballers of fur is their counterintuitive propensity for turning the ball over – an error they make on average 58 times a game. Although this game plan almost delivered a premiership, it is not something that is all that popular within the playing ranks – just ask Gryan Miers. https://twitter.com/1116sen/status/1379010422695731204 “I definitely prefer if (the ball moves) faster,” the dreadlocked small forward told SEN's Sportsday. “Our whole team does (as well), but it's all about holding on to possession and making opposition defend for long times and going in on our terms and that's worked in the past and it did show last year with the Grand Final appearance. “It does seem to work and we go both ways which is a strength of ours.” Despite what some punters and pundits may think of the Cats' contrarian approach to offense, there is one thing you can be sure of – if Geelong continue winning games, it is almost certain to stay. Still, if they continue coughing up more than just hairballs when in control, a side like the Demons are likely to make them pay, as Simon Goodwin's legion lead the competition for inside 50's and average 91-points per game. If Scott's early season winning streak is capped at two this weekend, then you can be sure that alterations – either in personal or in style – will be made. Just don't expect the 44-year-old to develop a lead foot overnight. Gold Coast When will they get their hands on the Havanas? Another week goes by and so does another game that the Suns were in up to their eyeballs. Once again, they were so close, but unlike Round 2, there would be no cigar. Although the Crows eventually prevailed against Stuart Dew's side by 10-points and the Suns' city of churches losing streak was extended to 11, the Carrara kids were not without their chances. By the time the final siren sounded, both clubs were deadlocked on 25 scoring shots a piece. The Suns also bested their hosts for contested possessions and inside 50s. Still, when is it all going to click for Dew and his youthful side? Across the Suns' last 20 contests, their record stands at 6 – 1 – 13, however, when they have tasted victory, the average margin has been 44-points. Conversely, when the four-points have not been obtained, the distance has been only 26. When they win, they win well. When they don't, they still give themselves at least half a chance. With co-captain and starting ruckman Jarrod Witts added to their burgeoning injury list, the Gold Coast are already behind the eight ball before the ball is bounced against Carlton on Saturday night. https://twitter.com/GoldCoastSUNS/status/1379264323814494208 With a six week stretch to follow that includes contests against the in-form Swans and five of last season's top eight - Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, St. Kilda, Brisbane and Geelong – don't expect Dew to be reaching for the cigar cutter any time soon. The effort is there, just as it has been for the vast majority of the last 18-months, however, you can't toast exertion and you can't smoke determination. Greater Western Sydney Can we officially put a line through them? With an 0-3 record, an average losing margin of four goals and a month ahead that includes games Collingwood, Sydney, the Western Bulldogs and the in-form Crows, I'm just about ready to pronounce the Giants dead in 2021. Add this their injury list that is twice the length of Flemington straight, and Leon Cameron's men are lucky nobody has pulled their chord yet. Wake me up when they do something, but until then, there is a red line through their name, for mine. Disagree with me? Feel free to take the bookies ever growing odds on them making the eight. Just don't expect a dividend. Hawthorn Will effort turn into reward this Saturday? Despite a pair of back-to-back losses against last year's Grand Finalists in consecutive weeks, Hawthorn have produced some handy patches of football. Although currently sitting 14th on the ladder with a percentage of just 86.1, Alastair Clarkson's kids -and Shaun Burgoyne – have managed to accumulate the 2nd most handballs and disposals in the competition and the 3rd highest aggregate of marks and rebound 50s. On the other hand, the mustard pots are ranked in the bottom five teams in the league for kicks, goals, points, inside 50s, goal assists and clearances per game. https://twitter.com/HawthornFC/status/1379275168183296002 Should you combine these weighted statistics, two facts become abundantly clear. The first is that Hawthorn have no trouble finding the football, however, it is clear, for the most part, that they tend to win the ball via turnovers in their defensive arc. Secondly, when streaming forward, they perennially hit roadblocks before being able to hit the scoreboard. With an average total of just 68-points per game over the season's first three weeks, the Hawks may have strung some eye-catching football together, but unless you are the Bombers in the second half of Round 1, then it is unlikely that you are too worried about them maintaining it. The Mayblooms next month of football is relatively friendly, as they are set to face only one team that made the eight-last year – the struggling Saints. Still, if their current trend of moving the ball by hand and shooting themselves in the feet is to continue, then it may be another month of learning rather than winning for the Waverley Park club. Melbourne Can they maintain their start to the season? So far, so good for my pre-season predictions about how Melbourne would fare in the season's first month. Still, seeing is believing, and what is playing out should be a sight for the sore eyes of every Demon diehard. For anybody that has sat down and watched Melbourne's first three weeks of the season, one thing is abundantly clear – their back six is football's answer to Fort Knox. Over the first trio of rounds, Simon Goodwin's backline has conceded the second least number of points in the competition with just 66.3 per game. https://twitter.com/RSNBreakfast/status/1379335816934264834 This line, led by twin pillars Steven May and Jake Lever, has allowed the class further afield to consistently hammer the ball inside 50 at a competition leading rate. With Ben Brown and Sam Weideman to return from injury, their ability to capitalize on these entries should realistically rise in the weeks to come. Some may argue that the Dees have faced three teams that are well below their benchmark – Fremantle, St. Kilda and GWS – but with a bronze medal for the greatest number of tackles in the AFL this year, credit must be given to the red and the blue boys for strangling their opponents. The challenge ahead of Goodwin's men is set to rise this weekend, with the Demons fixtured to face Geelong. However, if the same level of intensity is brought and the former Fuchsias counter the Cats' meticulous offensive style with pace, then a perfect month could be on the cards. North Melbourne Was that their rock bottom? In short, yes. Yes, it was. After conceding 167-points and losing by their greatest margin in almost four decades, it is fair to say that North Melbourne sit alongside a snake's backside and a shark's dropping at the lowest point imaginable. Still, as the adage goes, it is always the darkest right before the dawn. Although I'm not saying the Kangaroos are set to rebound at any stage soon, they do have a raft of influential names set to return. With no team going an entire season without a win in 57 years, history would suggest that the Shinboners will taste success at least once this season. If you are a fan or member, keep turning up and keep your TV sets on, as you won't want to miss it when it happens. https://twitter.com/NMFCOfficial/status/1379642413854023685 When you lose like North did on Good Friday, you realistically have nothing else left to lose. Like your coach David Noble, back the kids, Roos fans and bust out your VHS tapes from the glory days of the 90s if you need a pick me up. Port Adelaide Was Saturday night a slip up or something more sinister? After starting their season with easy wins over North Melbourne and Essendon respectively, Port Adelaide faced their first real test of 2021, when they took on the Eagles at Optus last Saturday. After going down by more than six goals, it is fair to say that they failed. https://twitter.com/PAFC/status/1378313565254213635 Still, with a stacked list and month of fixtured clashes against three fellow finalists from last season, Ken Hinkley's men will have plenty of further chances to re-sit their examination. With the Power still ranked in the competition's top five for disposals, goal assists and points per game, I am willing to call Saturday a slip up and retain my shares in the Alberton club. However, if a negative trend extrapolates from Round 3 onwards, I will be the person vehemently screaming ‘SELL' on the trading floor. Richmond Was Saturday afternoon a slip up or something more sinister? Unless you are Floyd ‘Money' Mayweather, every champion has hit the canvas and missed the bell at least once. Although Richmond were fighting in front of a friendly crowd and against an opponent many backed them to floor, the judges had them behind the count well before the final bell. Despite the Tigers' roaring success in recent years, Saturday afternoon provided the perfect reminder for Damien Hardwick, his players and Richmond's myriad of fanatics that although they are the competition's benchmark, they were not born to rule. https://twitter.com/Richmond_FC/status/1378217823470690309 Still, with that being said, the Punt Roaders have proven time and again that they are adept students of minor adversity, as they have not lost to the same team twice in a season since 2016. With a five-week stretch ahead that includes games against Port Adelaide, St. Kilda, Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs and Geelong, Hardwick's men will have their work cut out for them. However, with the Tigers continually starting seasons slow and finishing them strongly, there is a reason why they are still the bookies' favourite to take out the flag. St. Kilda Have they been totally exposed? For any long-suffering St. Kilda fan worth their salt, Saturday afternoon's insipid loss to a youthful Essendon outfit must have bordered on insulting. With their performance referred to as anything from unacceptable to gutless by these same loyal patrons, it is on both Brett Ratten and his playing group to respond quickly. https://twitter.com/unpluggered/status/1378501005625552897 With clashes against West Coast, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs before the safety of the bye in Round 14, if the Moorabbin sinners continue to remain lackadaisical, then this season is likely to slip away from them at the rate of knots. As highlighted by club legend Nick Riewoldt on Fox Footy's On The Couch earlier in the week, the Saints finished their clash against the Dons with a -34 pressure rating differential – the worst of any side since 2017. https://twitter.com/JustinDimieri/status/1379329247928446977 The 2020 finalists also posted a 50% tackle efficiency (the 3rd worst by the club since the statistic has been recorded) and 106-points conceded from turnovers (the most by any AFL team in 13 years). Wins are sought by every player, coach and fan in the AFL, and although they can't be achieved every week, determination from playing groups is non-negotiable. As highlighted above, the Saints just didn't exert the requisite levels of effort in Round 3. Many believed that the return to longer quarters would suit the Saints in 2021, as their youthful list and their desire to play quickly could bury teams early in contests. However, after nearly a month of football, the opposite is proving to be true, with many players in red, white and black jumpers looking eternally exhausted. 2020 may have seen St. Kilda return to the eight for the first time in nearly a decade, but as nothing beyond an elimination final victory was achieved, there is still nothing to celebrate at Moorabbin just yet. If the insipid ‘efforts' continue this weekend and beyond, this aforesaid group of success starved fans may be in for further pain in the near future. Football is a funny game though, and if the Saints respond against West Coast on Saturday evening, then all could be forgiven in the blink of an eye. Sydney How many more Rising Stars do they have left in their deck? With Chad Warner becoming the third Swan in as many weeks to gain a nomination, the question remains – how many more cygnets are eligible for selection? As the Swans are now a potent offensive side capable of beating previous preliminary finalists on their own decks, it appears worthwhile whacking some coin down on Logan McDonald to join his trio of first year teammates. https://twitter.com/AFL/status/1375657375072276480 With a month ahead that includes clashes against Essendon, Gold Coast, GWS and Geelong, the Swans look set to continue their winning ways, with McDonald - already with seven goals to his name – given the perfect opportunity to continue feasting in the forward 50. Should Justin McInerney return to the senior side and Will Gould make his debut, then they also remain viable options to gain further bang for your buck. Either way, these young swans are as precocious as they are fun. West Coast Have the cobwebs been blown off now? Last week, I spoke about West Coast's inability to strangle teams and dominate contests. Prior to their win over Port in Round 3, the Eagles had managed to win just eight out of 16 quarters of football, post on average 88-points per game and led games for just as long as they were losing them – 50.26%. However, when the siren sounded on Saturday night and their objectively woeful theme song rang out over Optus Stadium, Adam Simpson's men had almost raised the bar entirely. Anyone with a basic understanding of mathematics will be able to tell you that the Eagles' final score of 108 is a larger number then their first fortnight's mean of 88 – so they get a tick there. https://twitter.com/WestCoastEagles/status/1378482448451899392 Across the first two rounds, West Coast were only able to win half of the quarters of football they had played in. On Saturday night, nothing changed for the westerners, as Port Adelaide won the second half on the scoreboard. One tick. One cross. After a first quarter that saw them leading by 27-points, the Eagles kept their foot on Port's throat, and continued to lead the contest from ‘go to whoa'. Tick. Despite this obvious improvement, Adam Simpson will still be desperate to piece together a four quarter performance – something that has also been troubling me on a weekly basis. Western Bulldogs Are they the premiership favourites? At 3-0 and with an average score of 122-points per week, the Western Bulldogs are flying. Should their form remain, it appears almost certain that Doggies diehards won't be waiting another 62 years between drinks again. Most bookies have the Luke Beveridge's boys sitting outside the competition's top three chances at snaring silverware this September, so perhaps they are waiting for a greater sample size. https://twitter.com/westernbulldogs/status/1378076016149725185 Still, if you are like me, you are quite happy to jump at the hefty odds currently on offer. With the sons of the ‘scray set to face Brisbane, Gold Coast and GWS across the next three weeks, it is not inconceivable that they will be 7-0 when they face reigning premiers Richmond in Round 8. Some may be waiting to see how they fare this week before parting with their hard earned, whilst others may need to see how they stack up against the competition's contemporary benchmark before backing them financially. However, with a star-studded engine room, a triple pronged forward line that appears to figured out their past problems and a backline that is as exact as they are exciting, the Bulldogs are setting the competition's early pace. Still, premierships are not won in early April.

The big questions facing every club in Round 4

With the first month of the season almost over, a new set of quandaries have arisen👇

Greater Western Sydney

JOIN THE DISCUSSION

Latest News

Selecting every AFL team’s best 23 for 2026: Geelong Cats

Saints legend promoted to key off-field role at St Kilda

“Narrowing our focus”: Crows look to mimic premiers following straight sets...

Port Adelaide defender backs Todd Marshall’s 2026 role change

“With our blessing”: Chris Fagan opens door to Lachie Neale departure

FOLLOW US

		P	W	L	PTS	%
1	ADEL	23	18	5	72	139.3
2	GEEL	23	17	6	68	141.5
3	BL	23	16	6	66	114.2
4	COLL	23	16	7	64	122.4
5	GWS	23	16	7	64	115.3
6	FRE	23	16	7	64	109
7	GC	23	15	8	60	124.9
8	HAW	23	15	8	60	120.9