Sydney’s stunning fall from grace, why Geelong will be licking their lips: The stats that matter for your AFL team in Round 12

As we head into the bye rounds, there are plenty of trends shaping each club's playstyle, and importantly, their season.

Carlton, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs can take a week of reflection, but for 14 other sides, another match is scheduled to take place and impact the future of their season, whether for better or for worse.

We've taken a look at the key statistic that needs to continue as a strength, or improved on as a weakness, if your club is to walk away with four premiership points over the weekend.

Brisbane vs Essendon

Transition from defensive 50

The Lions are the league's third-best team at converting transition opportunities from half back to scores, and are a top-six team when it comes to providing untouched transitions from the defensive 50 to forward arc.

Meanwhile, Essendon are the poorest side in the competition at preventing such attacking plays, conceding the highest rate of transitions from the defensive to forward 50. Additionally, the Bombers struggle in creating opportunities for themselves, recording the worst rate of transitions in the AFL.

If Essendon are to stun the Lions at the Gabba, the Bombers need to improve on both aspects - preventing transitions from the opposition occurring, as well as sparking their own offence from the defensive half.

Collingwood vs Hawthorn

Turnovers

A key flaw that has developed in the Hawthorn side of 2025 is that the Hawks' kicking efficiency has diminished in comparison to their meteoric rise of 2024.

The Hawks average the highest "threat rating" by kicks in the AFL; however, with ill-executed skills, Hawthorn has become prone to turning the ball over in dangerous positions.

Hawthorn average the sixth-most turnovers per game this season, while their opposition's ability to score from turnovers has increased across the last five rounds.

Opposingly, Collingwood average the fourth-least turnovers per game and rank third for scores from turnover this season.

With a stack of star troops returning on Friday, Hawthorn will want to ensure they avoid making unforced skill errors, or Collingwood could further diminish the Hawks' premiership credentials.

Gold Coast vs Fremantle

Clearances

A huge battle of the midfield awaits on Saturday afternoon, as two talented young cores are set to face off.

The Suns average the fifth-most clearances per game this season, largely spearheaded by Matthew Rowell, Noah Anderson and Touk Miller. The former pair both average clearance figures inside the top 10 of all players in the competition, while Miller is a top-25 clearance winner.

However, they come up against Fremantle, who have their own bulls of their own. Caleb Serong averages a league-leading 8.8 clearances per game and has been a driving force behind the Dockers' latest two wins.

In both wins against GWS and Port Adelaide, the Dockers won both clearance counts, as Serong combined for 20 clearances across both contests.

If Fremantle are able to get on top of Gold Coast in the middle of the ground, it could go a long way into preventing a scoring onslaught by the Suns and result in a third-straight victory for Fremantle.

GWS vs Richmond

Scores per inside 50 entry

The Giants found their attacking mojo again against the Blues as they peppered the goals with 25 scoring shots from just 47 inside 50 entries.

That effort exceeds their already impressive season average of 47.8 per cent (meaning they score from nearly every second inside 50 entry).

Richmond, on the other hand, have struggled to convert inside 50 entries, ranked 15th with a rate of 43.1 per cent.

With an inexperienced list, and veteran forwards in and out of the side through injury, it's not surprising the Tigers have struggled offensively this season.

However, they'll certainly have to attempt to spoil the Giants' efficiency inside the arc, or GWS could send the Tigers home with a nasty percentage-stripping loss.

Sydney vs Adelaide

Scores per inside 50 entry

The Swans' ability to score from their inside 50s has greatly suffered in 2025.

Last season Sydney scored at the second-best conversion rate in the competition, scoring from an inside 50 entry 47.8 per cent of the time.

In 2025, that efficiency has dropped significantly to 42 per cent, ranked 16th in the competition.

The Swans' lack of key forward targets, and of course their injury list, are factors that are causing Sydney to struggle under Dean Cox's attacking gameplan.

Only Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean are averaging an equal or greater amount of marks inside 50 per game this season, as well as a greater goal average. The other forwards, as well as heavily relied upon midfielders, have all decreased their output this season.

Meanwhile, Adelaide have a plethora of in-form key targets, which is hence why they're scoring efficiency is far better than their 2024 average.

The Crows are currently ranked fifth for scores per inside 50 entry per game this season with an average of 47.5 per cent, improving their ranking from last season of ninth.

The three key talls of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker have all managed to increase their scoring output in 2025 despite sharing the forward line, while smaller targets Josh Rachele and Ben Keays have also seen an increase on the stat sheet.

The Swans will need to ensure they create quality opportunities inside 50 against the Crows, as another wasteful effort with their deliveries could see the Crows continue their attacking destruction.

Melbourne vs St Kilda

Inside 50s

Across the last five games, in which Melbourne have won four, the Demons' ability to create inside 50 entries has drastically improved.

While on the season the Demons rank ninth for inside 50s per game, they place third when analysing just the data from games since Round 7.

Melbourne's stark turn in form has largely been because of their reclaimed ability to generate scores from centre bounce clearances and forward half pressure acts, while even their transition off half back has seen an uptick in output.

St Kilda rank in the bottom half for these categories however, which has reflected their low scoring average across the last five weeks.

Importantly, the Saints rank inside the bottom five for inside 50s per game, with a scoring rate of just 40.2 per cent.

St Kila must look to take on a more attacking brand against the Demons, as Melbourne's form suggests a defensive playstyle may not be enough to prevent the Demons' current strength at delivering repeat inside 50 entries.

West Coast vs Geelong

Marks Inside 50

The reasoning behind this is as straightforward as it comes.

Geelong's forward line will be licking their lips for this matchup as they average the fourth-most marks inside 50 per game this season (13.4), while West Coast also concede the most marks inside 50 per game (17).

It presents as a potential bloodbath on the scoreboard if the Eagles cannot hold down the fort in defence, as the Bulldogs were made aware of in Round 11.

Despite the Bulldogs' best efforts with ball in hand, Geelong's attack was equally as damaging, recording 15 marks inside 50. West Coast will have to minimise that damage if they are to be competitive at Optus Stadium on Sunday.