Finals are almost upon us but incredibly, with one round to go, no ladder spot is certain. The final make up of the eight is much clearer than last week, but given the unpredictability of the season so far, only a fool would rule out a team completely. With such evenness across the league, this will certainly be a finals series to remember.
Hawthorn's loss to Carlton last weekend means they are the latest team to be mathematically eliminated from finals contention.
- Adelaide (15 W, 5 L, 1 D)
The only thing the Crows will be playing for this weekend is the minor premiership having already assured themselves of a top two spot, half-a-game clear of GWS. But their final game won't be easy, a road trip west to play an Eagles side desperate for September action. They will play their match later than Geelong-GWS and can enter their final game having secured the minor premiership if the Cats defeats the Giants.
Game to go: West Coast (DS)
2. GWS Giants (14 W, 5 L, 2 D)
The Giants have it all to play for in the final round. A win assures them of a top two spot (and potentially top spot if other results go their way), but a loss could see them drop to fourth.
Game to go: Geelong (SS)
3. Geelong (14 W, 6 L, 1 D)
Geelong's final game against GWS will determine which team will take the final top two spot. A poor result could seem them drop as low as fourth and potentially face a daunting trip to Adelaide for week one of the finals. But home ground advantage should be enough to tip the scales in their favour in what is certain to be a tight match.
Game to go: GWS (SS)
4. Richmond (14 W, 7 L)
Richmond can only climb to third but can fall as low as sixth depending on the result against St Kilda. They are one game clear of Port Adelaide and Sydney below them but are at a major disadvantage with percentage. The Tigers final game against the Saints is a genuine danger game and a bad result would almost certainly crush their top four dreams with the Power and the Swans playing significantly weaker opposition.
Game to go: St Kilda (MCG)
5. Port Adelaide (13 W, 8 L)
Port Adelaide have been a hard team to read in season 2017. A few weeks ago, they were stuck in the logjam, had just been thrashed in the Showdown and their form was nothing to write home about. Since then, they have mathematically guaranteed September participation and are one win clear of seventh placed Melbourne, almost certainly guaranteeing two week one finals in Adelaide. Like Sydney, they are still in contention for the double chance but will need St Kilda to defeat Richmond.
Game to go: Gold Coast (AO)
6. Sydney (13 W, 8 L)
It's not often you beat the top team and move down the ladder. With a game against Carlton to come, Sydney can book a top four berth with a big win and other favourable results. With a 16 percent percentage advantage over Melbourne, they realistically cannot be overtaken.
Game to go: Carlton (SCG)
7. Melbourne (12 W, 9 L)
Melbourne's fate is in their hands. A win will guarantee a finals spot but with only a slender percentage advantage over Essendon and West Coast, a loss to the Pies could see them drop out of finals completely.
Game to go: Collingwood (MCG)
8. Essendon (11 W, 10 L)
Essendon are in the box seat to claim the last finals spot. They hold a slight percentage advantage over West Coast and a larger advantage over St Kilda and the Bulldogs. Their final match sees them host Fremantle, a game which they should win. They will play their final game before St Kilda and West Coast and could effectively end their seasons before they step onto the ground.
Game to go: Fremantle (ES)
9. West Coast Eagles (11 W, 10 L)
West Coast's form line suggests they are due for a win. They have not won or lost consecutive games since their Round 11 defeat at the hands of Gold Coast and their 11 game win-loss sequence is the equal fourth longest of all time.
For any chance to feature in September, the Eagles must hope the pattern continues. They will need to beat Adelaide by a decent margin in the final ever AFL match at Subiaco Oval and hope Essendon win by a small margin or lose to steal the last finals spot. West Coast's finals hopes essentially rely on their Derby rivals.
Game to go: Adelaide (DS)
10. St Kilda (11 W, 10 L)
St Kilda clawed back some percentage with a big win over North Melbourne but are still an outside chance to feature in September. Their easiest path to September action is to defeat Richmond and hope Essendon and West Coast don't win. They can still make finals if both teams above them win by very small margins but will also need to replicate their Round 16 demolition of Richmond (ideally without the second-half fade).
Game to go: Richmond (MCG)
11. Western Bulldogs (11 W, 10 L)
The Western Bulldogs have fought hard in their premiership defence but will likely fall short. They will become the first reigning premiers to miss finals since Hawthorn in 2009, unless, we see a spectacular collapse by the teams above them. Their unlikely path to September is almost identical to St Kilda's, needing Essendon, West Coast and the Saints to lose, but can still book a finals berth if they thrash Hawthorn and the clubs above them can only secure small wins.
Game to go: Hawthorn (ES)
