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Predicting the 10 AFL breakout players for 2023

We’ve named the leading names set to reach new heights this season.

Published by
Michael Georgiou

Following their earliest years in the AFL, players will break through the ceiling above them and shine like never before, showing signs of the star they can be.

Sometimes it's the beginning of a star in the making, other times it's an anomaly. Sometimes it's a player at the dawn of their career, other times it's a player with a handful of seasons in the bank.

Here are 10 players we predict will take their game to the next level in 2023.

Riley Thilthorpe

Adelaide could potentially have the most dangerous forward line in the making.

The emergence of Darcy Fogarty last season, in tandem with veteran Taylor Walker, who will be supported by young small forwards Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele, makes for an impressive forward line.

Riley Thilthorpe could follow suit with Fogarty and make his name in this potent forward line to be this year's breakout player at West Lakes.

The second overall pick in the 2020 draft had a frustrating 2022, with injuries keeping him to 11 games.

But the ruck-forward hybrid has enjoyed an uninterrupted pre-season after his first didn't go to plan, with there now some belief he's on track for a career-best season.

This belief and discipline from the 20-year-old has him in good stride for this season.

Cam Rayner

Someone that has been in this breakout category for several years now, is it finally time Cameron Rayner shows us why he was drafted with pick number one in 2017?

After missing 2021 with an ACL injury, it was probably too much to ask him to breakout last year, but he enjoyed a solid return nonetheless.

Camreron Rayner during the round 22 AFL match between St Kilda and Brisbane on August 12, 2022 (Photo by Cameron Grimes / Zero Digital Media)

Showing glimpses in 2022, like in Round 22 against St Kilda where he kicked three last-quarter goals to get over the line, Rayner has the potential to be a star of the competition.

With stars around him like Josh Dunkley and Lachie Neale, the former being one of the best midfield-forwards in the game to learn from, the 23-year-old could break out.

Brandon Zerk-Thatcher

The coaching shakeup at Essendon looks likely to reinvigorate the playing group, including defender Brandon Zerk-Thatcher.

The 24-year-old finished the year with eight consecutive games, his most since 2020, and was in good form through those appearances.

If he is to continue that form into 2023, the South Australian is well-placed to go to the next level.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 02: Brandon Zerk-Thatcher of the Bombers marks the ball during the round 16 AFL match between the Essendon Bombers and the Sydney Swans at Melbourne Cricket Ground on July 02, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

A good pre-season would go a long way in his development and it seems that has been the case, with Zerk-Thatcher saying he rolled back into the club earlier than needed.

He says he has worked on his fitness more so he could run out games and get involved in the contest.

With fellow defender Mason Redman breaking out in 2022, expect the moustached high flyer to follow suit.

Jye Amiss

The most straightforward option in this, as Fremantle have been crying out for a key forward since Matthew Pavlich retired in 2016.

This need is even more apparent now that Rory Lobb has departed for the Western Bulldogs.

Still very young, the 19-year-old Amiss has shown potential to be that key forward the Dockers need.

Again, it may be too early for the country boy to break out, but the role is open for the taking.

He had an impressive debut, and has shown he can kick goals and take marks, but even more impressive is his determination to recover from a kidney injury to play in the club's two finals.

It's bold to predict a breakout year from a three-game teenager returning from a serious injury, but he 100 will turn heads and is sure to get more game time now.

Max Holmes

The heartbreak story of last year's grand final, Max Holmes played every game from round 15 onwards, suffering a devastating injury in the preliminary final.

30 games into his career, the 20-year-old may have been calling himself a premiership player, but instead had to watch his side comfortably win the flag from the sidelines.

PERTH, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 10: Max Holmes of the Cats handpasses the ball during the 2021 AFL First Preliminary Final match between the Melbourne Demons and the Geelong Cats at Optus Stadium on September 10, 2021 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The emerging Cat has an elite running ability and has impressed during training recently, competing in centre bounces at times.

Expect the youngster to be fired up after missing the grand final.

Malcolm Rosas

A hole has been left in the forward line at Gold Coast by Izak Rankine, and that hole could very well be filled by Malcolm Rosas.

The small forward has shown many times he can kick goals from anywhere, kicking 14 goals from 15 games.

On a few occasions, the 21-year-old booted three goals but he also averaged three tackles a game.

If the Darwin native improves upon his foundations, scoring even more than he does and bringing more pressure, he performs his duties and probably breaks out as the club's best small forward.

Finn Callaghan

Plenty of room has opened up in the midfield at GWS for players to make their name known.

Tom Green had his breakout last season, so it may be another young gun's turn to do so.

In comes Finn Callaghan.

The soon-to-be 20-year-old played just the five games last year, but fell out of the team when Leon Cameron departed. A troublesome foot injury also bothered him since the pre-season, which he has since had surgery on.

Now under Adam Kingsley, a focus on youth should favour the classy midfielder.

Now injury free and with a few vacancies in the engine room, Callaghan should break into the team.

Will Day

Another player that has threatened to break the shackles a few times like Cam Rayner is Hawks defender Will Day.

Unfortunately, the 21-year-old has been restricted to 33 games in three seasons due to injury.

He played 17 games in 2022, but Sam Mitchell couldn't find a permanent position for him, before he found his place in the back six.

Still fairly young, Day's body and skills are still developing, so the fact that he's been on the precipice of breaking out already is telling.

If he doesn't get injured, with the Hawks in a rebuild, it'll be Day time. (No apologies)

Jason Horne-Francis

Back at home, away from the distractions that plagued him at North Melbourne, Jason Horne-Francis could be ready to explode in 2023.

In his 17 games, the former No.1 draft pick showed why he was highly valued, but as aforementioned, his time at the Kangaroos was dramatic and eventful.

Port Adelaide recruit Jason Horne-Francis. Image via Port Adelaide Twitter

He averaged 16.5 disposals, 2.9 tackles and 3.5 total clearances in his first year, pretty nifty, and should improve on that in his second year.

The powerful midfielder, with his North problems behind him, might unleash on the competition this season.

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

From one former No.1 pick to another, you could argue Jamarra Ugle-Hagan somewhat broke out last season, with some standout performances in the back half of the year, but there's more to be done.

He'll want to improve too, with a forward line consisting of Aaron Naughton, Josh Bruce (potentially may move to defence), and now Rory Lobb, the competition for tall forwards is healthy.

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan celebrates his match-winning goal against Melbourne at Marvel Stadium during Round 19. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images via AFL Photos)

Many will remember his five goals against Melbourne, but before that he kicked three goals just once.

Improving on his game this pre-season should see him leave his mark on the team, and a breakout season from Ugle-Hagan will make the Dogs' forward line even more dangerous.

Published by
Michael Georgiou