On Monday, the Sydney Swans confirmed that Errol Gulden will miss approximately four months, with the club opting to send the midfielder for surgery on his dislocated shoulder.
It is a cruel blow for the 23-year-old, who, in a fashion emblematic of his side, started the season in ominously damaging touch. A commonplace tackle from Lincoln McCarthy in the dying embers of Sydney's impressive victory over reigning premiers Brisbane has derailed what was shaping up to be another imposing campaign.
It is a setback reminiscent of the one Gulden and the Swans endured in 2025, after the classy distributor missed the first 13 games of a campaign that ended without the Sydneysiders featuring in September action, just one season removed from a second Grand Final berth in three years.
This latest setback marks the third significant injury for Gulden since his 2021 debut, and the numbers that populate the Swans' record without him are grim.
Since Gulden's debut, the Swans have won 63.4% of all matches, and 67.3% of matches where Gulden has featured.
Without him, however, the Swans have won just 44.4% of the 18 matches he's missed; a number that is clearly well down on their usual strike rate.
In 2021, his debut season, Gulden missed five games through stress reactions in his foot. Not a crucial cog in proceedings just yet, the Swans covered his absence, going 3-2, with a points differential of +19.
Upon his return, the Swans finished the year in fine fashion, winning seven of their final 10 matches by an average margin of 40 points, before losing to arch rivals GWS by a point in an elimination final, just 12 months removed from a 16th-placed finish.
Gulden finished his rookie year having featured in 15 matches, kicking 12 majors and receiving the peer-voted honour of the AFL Players Association's Best First Year Player. He finished inside the top five in Rising Star voting, and was the highest-polling first-year player.
In 2022, Gulden played every game, aiding the Swans in their charge to a Grand Final, where they were ultimately embarrassed by a Geelong side who quite simply had a date with destiny that day.
In 2023, following their September shellacking, the Swans had a down year, finishing just the right side of .500, with a 12-1-11 record. Gulden's play was in this case, not indicative of his side's as the budding star was named on the wing in the All-Australian side.
In 2024, the Swans would respond, finishing 19-7. Again, Gulden played every game, claiming a second consecutive All-Australian blazer, as the Swans would again lose the Grand Final in uncompetitive fashion.
In 2025, Gulden missed the first 13 matches of the campaign, and the Swans went 5-8 in his absence, with an average losing margin in excess of five goals.
Sydney stormed home, with Gulden rekindling hopes of an unlikely finals berth and leading his side to seven wins from their final ten matches. The tilt at September ultimately fell short, but the change in fortunes upon Gulden's injection back into the side was no coincidence.
The Swans have made the Grand Final in two of the three seasons in which Gulden has played every game. Errol has been adorned with an All-Australian blazer in two of the three seasons in which he's played every game.
It is looking increasingly likely that the Swans will be without their vice-captain, Isaac Heeney, too, after his hamstring grumbled mere minutes after Gulden left the field on Saturday night.
The Swans are far more used to the absence of Heeney than they are Gulden, with numerous setbacks populating his decade-plus in the league. That is not to say that they fare too well without him, though.
Since his debut in 2015, the Swans have won just 37.5% of the 32 games that Heeney has missed.
If the 10 games he missed with a PCL injury in his rookie year are removed, given the Swans still managed a top four finish and went 7-3 without him, that number dips to a miserable 22.7%.
In 2016, Heeney was rested mid-year, en route to a Grand Final berth for the Swans. His side split those two matches. In 2017, Heeney missed the first four matches of the year with glandular fever, and the Swans were winless in that period.
In the winter of 2018, the Swans lost a home game to Geelong without their blonde pocket rocket. Heeney played every game of 2019, before missing considerable time in 2020, where his side went 3-8 without him. He has missed four matches since the start of 2021, with the Swans only win in those four coming against a perpetually rebuilding North Melbourne outfit in 2024 - a year in which the Swans featured in the Grand Final.
Since Gulden's debut, the Swans have not had the misfortune of fielding a side without either he or Heeney. As such, Thursday night's date with Hawthorn, under lights at the MCG, represents uncharted territory.
