Storylines will be squeezed into every corner of Optus Stadium on Saturday night.
The Dockers are playing their first final since 2022. The Gold Coast Suns are playing their first final ever. Dockers legend Nat Fyfe is potentially playing the last game of his illustrious career. The Suns' David Swallow is ending a record-setting 247-game wait to make his September debut.
Neither team has ever won an AFL premiership. The Dockers are $1.52 with TABtouch to beat the Suns, and extend their flag hopes for at least another week. The Suns are $2.55 to cause an upset and make their first final a winning one.
The Dockers have won 12 of their past 14 games, and 10 of their last 12 at home. The 60,000 in attendance, the overwhelming majority of whom will be sporting Dockers purple, will be expecting a resounding victory over their “upstart” rival. The line for the match is 10.5 points (-10.5 at $1.90, in the Dockers' favour).
However, in sharp contrast with the Suns' lack of experience is head coach Damien Hardwick's glowing September CV, which boasts three premierships and countless finals blockbusters. Hardwick knows what it takes to win in tough conditions, which has contributed to his selection of Swallow.
“When there's 25 mills of rain, there's one man I want out there, and that's David Swallow,” Hardwick said on Fox Footy's AFL360. “He's earned the right to play a finals game, and we want to see him play a couple more as well.”
Another Sun that could thrive in wet conditions is veteran Touk Miller, who has also played over 200 AFL games before this finals opportunity. Miller, a former club captain and two-time All-Australian, has had 20 and 21 disposals in his past two games, and is $1.11 to reach 20+ in this one.
For the Dockers, midfielder Caleb Serong has been in strong form, averaging 26 disposals across his last three contests. The last time the Dockers faced the Suns, which was a 75-64 win in Round 12, Serong amassed 27 disposals. He is $1.32 to have 25 or more with TABtouch in this encounter.
Plenty of goals were kicked by midfielders in that Round 12 match-up, with the Suns' Sam Flanders and the Dockers' Shai Bolton adding three apiece. Flanders is $2.55 to kick a goal at any time during this finals affair, while Bolton is $1.33 to kick a goal.
In a potentially rainy affair, the total points line is currently set at 162.50 ($1.90 over, $1.90 under), but such is the hunger of both teams, neither will shy away from the prospect of “winning ugly”.
“We'll need to get our hands dirty and beat them at the source on Saturday night,” Dockers coach Justin Longmuir said on Channel 7. “It's a long, tough season, and you do all that to be here, so we can't wait.”
PREMIERSHIP ODDS
Collingwood Magpies $3.65
Geelong Cats $3.65
Brisbane Lions $4.25
Adelaide Crows $8.50
Hawthorn Hawks $15
Fremantle Dockers $17
GWS Giants $41
Gold Coast Suns $41
Be a part of the action with TABtouch. Odds are subject to change from the time of publishing. Place a Same Game Multi and combine up to 16 legs for bigger odds.
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