If luck is an invisible equaliser, the Richmond Tigers are probably entitled to feel a little hard done by in 2022.

The race to finals is heating up, with the Tigers currently claiming the last spot in the eight, ready to rejoin the September action after a tenth-placed finish in 2021, and yet the club still has a big question mark hanging over its head when it comes to their finals credentials.

Richmond have seen their fair share of close losses throughout 2022, losing by less than ten points on four occasions so far this season. Those narrow defeats came against Sydney (six points), Geelong (three points), Gold Coast (two points) and most recently, North Melbourne (four points).

It's an unfortunate run of results, and one that wouldn't be the envy of most footy fans, but it is the consequence of something far bigger than some unlucky moments for the yellow and black.

The loss to the Kangaroos would have been hard to swallow for Richmond. The Roos have been winless since Round 2, had farewelled their senior coach just days earlier and are sitting last on the ladder, whereas the Tigers could have gone four points clear inside the eight doing what 14 teams before them had managed to achieve.

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Yet they didn't. Tigers coach Damien Hardwick labelled his side's efficiency in front of goal during the Round 18 loss as "abysmal", and with 11.22 on the scoreboard it's hard to disagree. But boiling Richmond's inability to win games down to poor conversion in front of goal is far too simplistic.

The last few minutes of the Saturday evening clash looked at times more like an impression of two AFL teams rather than the real deal. Both sides made poor choices, silly mistakes and suffered through bad execution, but the Tigers were the ones who walked away without the four points in the bank.

North hit the lead with less than three minutes remaining, finally managing to get the ball through the goal posts after several attempts in the previous minutes, and thus the demise of intelligent football began.

North's Curtis Taylor marked the ball just outside 50 and rushed the ball forward, just for it to be rushed through by Robbie Tarrant, conceding possession without taking any time off the clock. With the ball in hand, the Tigers made their way forward, just for Jake Aarts to inexplicably play on after claiming a mark inside 50 with 44 seconds on the clock. The consequential rushed behind wasn't enough to get Richmond over the line.

Looking back to Richmond's after-the-siren loss to Gold Coast, these issues are just as evident. The Tigers aren't just playing dumb footy, but undisciplined footy. A missed goal from Jason Castagna set the scene for Gold Coast's thrilling win, but the 50-metre penalty conceded by Jayden Short exemplifies the issues at Richmond's core.

The Tigers have by far conceded the most 50-metre penalties of any team so far this season. Currently sitting on 37 after 18 rounds of action, Richmond are clear at the top of the table with the next team, North Melbourne, conceding just 23.

Of the 18 players in the league who have conceded the most inside 50s, five hail from Punt Road, with Shai Bolton leading the pack with five alone.

While Richmond's desire to close out games in the dying stages leaves much to be desired, their ability to maintain an early lead is also a cause of concern. This season alone the Tigers have conceded a 31-point lead to the Swans, a 25-point lead to the Saints and an incredible 42-point lead to the Suns, failing to contain opposition momentum when the game is up for grabs.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 24: Tom J. Lynch and Shai Bolton of the Tigers look dejected after losing the round six AFL match between the Richmond Tigers and the Melbourne Demons at Melbourne Cricket Ground on April 24, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

For a team that values team structure over individual performance and have won premierships off the back of defensive pressure, the Tigers now rank last league wide for average tackles per game and 15th for tackles inside 50. While chaos footy has seemingly been Richmond's modus operandi for years now, it may have finally run its course.

Taking a look at the side firmly on the other side of the close game coin, Collingwood, the Pies seem to have cracked the code at claiming four points at the death.

Collingwood sit just outside of the top four heading into Round 19 after a poor 2021 campaign. The resurgent Pies have claimed 12 wins this season, with five of those by a margin of seven points or less, the current antithesis of the Tigers.

The Pies haven't lost a match since Round 9, claiming big scalps against Fremantle, Carlton and Melbourne, and while their brilliant run of form and propensity to claim close wins has been partly attributed to good fortune, the Pies have themselves, not luck, to thank.

On paper, the Tigers and Pies seem quite balanced, and yet Collingwood sit three wins higher on the ladder. Collingwood have won 9 of their 17 fourth quarters this season, as have Richmond, but unlike the 18th placed Tigers, the Pies rank second league-wide for tackles made.

Craig McRae's men have shown something that has them so nicely placed heading into September, pure desperation. Their defence has held up under pressure and they work hard, ranked first in intercepts and third in points against from turnovers competition wide.

While some of Collingwood's wins haven't been overwhelmingly skilful or entirely convincing, they have managed to get over the line, something good teams know how to do.

There’s a fine line between heartbreaking chaos and blissful mania and the Magpies have managed to walk right on the precipice, getting it right on the field and in the coaches box.

Now 7-1 in games decided by under 12 points, Collingwood, and first-year coach McRae, are undeniably the masters of the pressure game. Once can be a coincidence, twice can be luck, but what we have here is a trend.

When the game is there to be won, the Pies put their head down and get the job done, even if it's ugly. Richmond on the other hand, have become the unfortunate victims of their own mistakes.