Will Brisbane and Adelaide join the casualty list of top-four sides that have failed to reach a preliminary final?
Or will they, in terms of recent years, buck the trend?
The pre-finals bye has created a series of stats that indicate the lack of advantage finishing inside the top four has, despite the secondary chance.
Introduced in 2016, the pre-finals bye was established to ensure clubs in the race for premiership were fielding their strongest teams and to avoid resting players ahead of the September action.
In 2013, Fremantle, having locked up a double chance, rested a host of players in their final round clash against St Kilda.
Ross Lyon deployed a similar tactic in 2015, the year the Dockers claimed the minor premiership. North Melbourne did the same.
However, despite the reasoning behind its introduction remaining valid, it has created another point of contention, and the stats prove it.
Between 2000 and 2015, it was common for all top four teams each season to play in the preliminary final weekend. In fact, it happened on 12 of 16 occasions.
However, from 2016 onwards, only two sets of the top four sides have made it that far, occurring in 2017 and 2020, representing a figure of 22 per cent.
As a by-product, straight-set exits are also more common. We have seen top-four sides like Hawthorn (2016 and 2018), Brisbane (2019 and 2021), Melbourne (2022 and 2023), and GWS (2024) all dismissed without a win in September, despite having a double chance.
The pre-finals bye has also laid claims to assisting clubs outside the top four win the premiership, with the Western Bulldogs (seventh, 2016) and the Lions (fifth, 2024) both famously winning grand finals against Sydney.
Which brings us to 2025.
Brisbane and Adelaide's backs are against the wall after disappointing losses to Geelong and Collingwood.
The Crows finished the season as minor premiers, earning the double chance and the right to face Hawthorn this Friday night in the hope of progressing to a preliminary final against the Cats.
But since 1983, there have been no ladder leaders bowled over without a win in the finals, with North Melbourne achieving the unwanted feat 43 years ago.
As for the Lions, it could mean their premiership defence is in tatters, facing a red-hot Gold Coast in the first-ever QClash final this week.
Chris Fagan has seen both sides of the coin that the week off has, going out in straight sets on two occasions before lifting the cup aloft on the last Saturday in September last season.
But he, like Matthew Nicks, will be hoping they are not just another damning statistic against the contentious pre-finals bye.
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