Flag or bust, finals bound, top 10 fancy: Each club’s pass mark for 2026

A cut-throat league like the AFL demands excellence, and as a result, there's one winner and 17 losers. But the reality is, not all clubs are expected to be pressing for a premiership, or even finals. The introduction of the top 10 and the wildcard round has altered the forecasting of many teams. And for that exact reason, each team's pass mark should vary based on a variety of factors. Below, we have determined what each club should be striving for and what their fan base should be expecting in 2026... Adelaide Pass mark: Preliminary Final The disappointing straight-sets exit after claiming the minor premiership should spur the Crows on in 2026. A return to September for the West Lakes club has offered plenty of insight into what it takes to perform among the best teams. The addition to the finals line-up of Izak Rankine (suspension) and Callum Ah Chee (Brisbane) should add much-needed firepower to Matthew Nicks' toolbag, and place less reliance on the three-headed monster. [caption id="attachment_163707" align="alignnone" width="1174"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MAY 17: Izak Rankine of the Crows misses a goal during the 2025 AFL Round 10 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Kuwarna (Adelaide Crows) at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on May 17, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by James Wiltshire/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] Nicks is contracted until the end of 2027, but he could dissuade any external noise regarding his future with a strong campaign. As a result, a lot will be expected of the Adelaide Football Club. Brisbane Pass mark: Grand Final It's hard to see the Lions flailing after a second consecutive premiership, and that is why the bar is set at a fourth grand final appearance. Brisbane achieved this feat in the early 2000s (2001-2004) and claimed three-straight flags. The additions of Oscar Allen, Sam Draper and Dan Annable only help Chris Fagan's push for more glory, and have the Queensland club primed for its premiership defence. [caption id="attachment_171949" align="alignnone" width="2560"] BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 13: Levi Ashcroft of the Lions kicks the ball during the AFL Semi Final match between Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast Suns at The Gabba on September 13, 2025 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)[/caption] Despite bucking the trend, recent history has shown it is difficult to back up a flag, but if anyone can do it, it's these trusty Lions. Carlton Pass mark: More wins than losses The Blues have been taken off Broadway and aren't expected to make a major dent on the competition in 2026. Charlie Curnow's departure has overshadowed the acquisitions in his place, but with Michael Voss barely making it through the summer months alive, Ikon Park will be a place of intrigue. [caption id="attachment_164992" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 04: Michael Voss, Senior Coach of the Blues looks on during the 2025 AFL Round 17 match between the Carlton Blues and the Collingwood Magpies at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on July 4, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)[/caption] For Voss, he needs a finals appearance to keep his job. But a more realistic benchmark is produce a positive season in the win-loss column. Collingwood Pass mark: Grand Final The cliff is coming quickly for Collingwood, and 2026 is deemed its last opportunity to achieve the ultimate success before a host of veterans depart. The Pies attempted to hit the draft knowing full well most of their youth will bide their time in the upcoming season, as Craig McRae struggles to replace the evergreen Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe. A home preliminary final should've resulted in a grand final chance, but the Pies ran into a white-hot Lions outfit and were dismantled in 15 minutes of football. [caption id="attachment_154664" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 03: Scott Pendlebury of the Magpies is chaired off the ground by Jeremy Howe (L) and Steele Sidebottom of the Magpies after playing his 400th game and winning the round 21 AFL match between Collingwood Magpies and Carlton Blues at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on August 03, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)[/caption] But at their best, Collingwood proved they can compete, and those who have quickly forgotten they were 10 points on top of the ladder heading into the final month of the season. Essendon Pass mark: Win 8 games The Bombers have been steadfast against the term 'rebuild', but the entire football world understands where the club currently sits. Another year of a draft-heavy focus has the club ranked among the youngest in the competition, while the Zach Merrett saga shook Essendon to its core. But looking forward to 2026, Brad Scott will have his work cut out for him, especially when developing a young group. [caption id="attachment_169077" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 14: Zach Merrett of the Bombers is tackled by Connor Macdonald of the Hawks during the round one AFL match between Hawthorn Hawks and Essendon Bombers at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on March 14, 2025, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)[/caption] As expected, the Tullamarine club will almost be given a free pass, especially after their unprecedented run of injuries last season, which have crept into the new year. Fremantle Pass mark: Top 4 It feels the Dockers have been building for some time under Justin Longmuir, but two finals appearances and one September win during his tenure are not enough for the talent in the west. Fremantle have the pieces all over the ground, and arguably deserved a top-four finish last year, but fell shy by percentage. If Longmuir is serious about bringing a maiden flag to the club, 2026 has to see the anchor dropped and the purple haze rise as one. [caption id="attachment_158882" align="alignnone" width="2560"] SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 17: Justin Longmuir, Senior Coach of the Dockers looks on during the round 23 AFL match between Greater Western Sydney Giants and Fremantle Dockers at ENGIE Stadium on August 17, 2024 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jason McCawley/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)[/caption] However, the contrary could spell trouble for the Dockers coach, who is currently amid a peculiar ongoing contract. Geelong Pass mark: Grand Final The mastermind of Chris Scott has seen the perpetually contending Cats reach more finals this century than any other club, and shouldn't shy away from the pressure of returning to September in 2026. A small but crucial acquisition of James Worpel will add much-needed grunt to midfield, which possesses one of the league's best defensive and forward groups. Geelong returned to the final day in September with not so much as a sweat, but failed to bring the cup home. They should aim to reverse the result in nine months. Gold Coast Pass mark: Grand Final A grand final appearance. A bold statement, which is what the new Gold Coast Suns is all about. Breaking the 15-year absence from September football, coupled with its first-ever finals win, will hold the club in good stead going forward. But the addition of Christian Petracca and a host of first-round academy graduates could unlock a scary reality that the AFL may not have prepared for. [caption id="attachment_170805" align="alignnone" width="2560"] GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 17: Christian Petracca poses during a media opportunity with the Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium on October 17, 2025 in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)[/caption] The Suns rank among the youngest and most inexperienced teams in the competition, but are still performing at an incredibly high level. So why not make the decider in 2026? GWS Pass mark: Top 4 The Giants have been nipping at the heels of premiership glory for the past decade, but only reached the grand final once. For the most part, their game is in great shape, boasting an elite defensive line and one of the most potent forward groups. A game style built for September, and a team that is coined the 'Orange Tsunami' due to the extreme running powers. The inclusion of experienced heads Clayton Oliver and Jayden Laverde will strengthen Adam Kingsley's side, but the loss of Josh Kelly might be costly. Nevertheless, a double chance isn't out of reach for the Giants. Hawthorn Pass mark: Grand Final The next step in Hawthorn's progression is the grand final. From a semi-final loss, to a preliminary final defeat, the Hawks have developed astronomically under Sam Mitchell the past three years. The brash and brave Hawks have never turned a blind eye in their successful history, and aren't short of expressing hubris, making them a much-disliked group. [caption id="attachment_159253" align="alignnone" width="2560"] GEELONG, AUSTRALIA - FEBRUARY 17: Sam Mitchell the coach of the Hawks looks o during the AFL practice match between Geelong Cats and Hawthorn Hawks at GMHBA Stadium on February 17, 2025 in Geelong, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)[/caption] But the brown and gold have done so for good reason, and Mitchell, just as he achieved as a player under Alastair Clarkson, could unlock a dynasty in waiting. Melbourne Pass mark: Win 6 games A new coach breathes new life into a club, but also brings a lack of intense pressure. Steven King has taken over from Simon Goodwin and has promised an exciting and lively game plan, which is in stark contrast to what has been dished up since the 2021 flag. The addition of experienced talents like Brody Mihocek and Jack Steele should combat the void left by Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca in some aspect. The Demons also welcomed some exciting draftees, who could get early-season looks as the magnets across the board are tipped to be shuffled. North Melbourne Pass mark: More wins than losses The time is now for North Melbourne to rise up the ladder after six consecutive bottom-three finishes. The Kangaroos have promised improvement for some time, but the change needs to be tangible. Not a lot of player movement in the off-season, meaning the club believes they have the cattle to challenge the competition, which at times has been fleeting. But despite no finals in a decade, the Arden Street club should be looking at improving their percentage, and also record more wins than losses in 2026. Port Adelaide Pass mark: More wins than losses Despite Josh Carr pulling more strings alongside Ken Hinkley than people think, the new Port Adelaide coach is now thrust into the hotseat, and with that comes more pressure than ever imagined. The Power dropped out of the finals, a rare occurrence, but has shown to bounce back in brilliant fashion, claiming top-four spots the season following. [caption id="attachment_168228" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 16: Josh Carr, Assistant coach of the Power looks on ahead of the round 23 AFL match between Carlton Blues and Port Adelaide Power at Marvel Stadium on August 16, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)[/caption] That would be a dream for Carr, who has already begun implementing his game plan and strategy. But with the competition getting tighter, it is hard to see Port Adelaide replacing the teams above them, despite the increase in finals positions. Richmond Pass mark: Win 4 games The Tigers surprised all with five victories in 2025 as they tick off season one of their rebuild. But any project is set to plateau, and although Adem Yze has other ideas, it wouldn't be a shock to see Richmond dip in the amount of wins. However, what should be a focus is minimising the damage on losses, or bridging the gap of those clubs who sit higher than them on the ladder. Richmond's main objective is to develop two draft classes' worth of extreme talent, and get them up to AFL speed. St Kilda Pass mark: Top 6 The ultra-aggressive off-season by the Saints means they believe they should be pressing for more than just a finals appearance. The inclusion of Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Sam Flanders and Liam Ryan to the impressive list should bode well for the Moorabbin club. [caption id="attachment_170153" align="alignnone" width="2560"] Sam Flanders pic 2. Credit: St Kilda Football Club[/caption] The re-signing of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has turned St Kilda into an attractive place, but their on-field performances must begin to reflect that, or else their $2 million man could walk. Saints fans and NAS alike want results, and with Ross the Boss at the helm, change appears to be inevitable. Sydney Pass mark: Top 4 Curnow in, top-four fancy. That's what most are expecting of Sydney, and rightly so. The Bloods rarely missed finals, so the fact they didn't feature in September felt unique. But with a healthy list and revitalised playing group headed by the inclusions of Curnow, along with Jai Serong and Malcolm Rosas, Dean Cox shouldn't fear reaching for the double chance. The back half of 2025, coincidentally as Errol Gulden returned, saw the Swans of 2024 reincarnate, albeit it was too late for a finals berth. That momentum could see Sydney return to the finals with a bang, and potentially push for that elusive premiership. West Coast Pass mark: Win 4 games The Eagles saluted once in 2025. But can they reach four wins? That should be the benchmark. Andrew McQualter will return to work with a heap of excitable and talented youngsters, but also a group of experienced campaigners who can help guide the club through the rebuild. [caption id="attachment_171245" align="alignnone" width="2560"] MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 19: Cooper Duff-Tytler poses after being selected by the Eagles as part of the 2025 Telstra AFL Draft at Marvel Stadium on November 19, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)[/caption] The AFL's assistance package helped land some established midfielders, bridging the gap between the club's best and worst prospects. Western Bulldogs Pass mark: Top 4 Luke Beveridge has never coached his team to the top four, but has a way of yielding impressive results year-on-year. The Bulldogs were the best defensive team in 2024, then turned into the best offensive team last year. If Beveridge can combine the two effectively, the Marcus Bontempelli-led side is among those chasing a home final, or better still, a double chance.

Flag or bust, finals bound, top 10 fancy: Each club’s pass mark for 2026

Below, we have determined what each club should be striving for and what their fan base should be expecting in 2026…

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		P	W	L	PTS	%
1	ADEL	23	18	5	72	139.3
2	GEEL	23	17	6	68	141.5
3	BL	23	16	6	66	114.2
4	COLL	23	16	7	64	122.4
5	GWS	23	16	7	64	115.3
6	FRE	23	16	7	64	109
7	GC	23	15	8	60	124.9
8	HAW	23	15	8	60	120.9