Exposing pretenders: The stat revealing the AFL’s biggest over and underacheivers

It is possible to see which AFL teams potentially overperformed and which sides were unlucky in a given season.

Wheelo Ratings define 'xWins' as "the expected number of wins based on the expected scores in each game." The difference between a club's xWins and actual total of victories can indicate whether a team is as good as they appear in the standings, or if a regression back to the mean can be anticipated.

Of course, it's not a perfect indicator. In 2023, the Collingwood Magpies won 4.8 more games than expected, yet defied the run of play to claim a 16th AFL premiership. However, it should be noted that this is the only instance of a premiership side winning more than 1.0 games than expected since 2021.

While lists have had plenty of turnover since the conclusion of the 2025 season, this statistic still provides an interesting look into expectations for 2026. Will some of last year's contenders regress, or will they be thereabouts in September once again?

Twelve of the 18 AFL clubs finished the season within one win of their xWins total, (-1.0 to 1.0), indicating that most teams' record reflected essentially what was expected of them across the campaign.

However, six clubs are anomalies to this trend, with two in particular standing out among the rest, on both ends of the spectrum.

GWS led the way with +3.5 xWins, with their overperformance ensuring they continued their finals streak.

The Giants have competed the hard way in the last three seasons, but notably the last two, winning over three games more than expected in both 2024 and 2025. Based on these seasons, a 'return to the mean' would see them fall out of the top eight.

Minor premiers Adelaide were the only other team to record an astronomical number of xWins, with the data suggesting they won 2.9 more games than they should have in 2025. While their dismal finals exit has already pointed toward the Crows potentially being further away from a premiership than initially thought, the data backs this up.

While this metric shouldn't count the Crows out of premiership contention, the minimal changes to their playing list suggests that they regress back to the mean in 2026, and likely fail to back up their minor premiership.

Down the bottom end of the xWins ladder are the Melbourne Demons, who will feel like they let their last dance with Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver get away from them, losing 4.0 more games than expected. While that would have seen the Demons notch 11 wins for the season, still 12 premiership points out of the post-season picture, it's evident they were on a closer level to the likes of Sydney and Carlton, which their percentage reflects.

Expect minor leaps from North Melbourne and West Coast this season too. They lost 2.0 and 1.7 games more than expected in 2025 respectively, and while that wouldn't have taken them out of the AFL's basement, for West Coast in particular, it highlights they were not historically bad, as their 1-22 record suggested.

Below: 2025 xWins ladder (includes finals)