AFL Editorial and Opinion

Every club’s ‘to do list’ before finals

From eighth to first, there is still work to be done before a flag can be won.

Published by
Zero Hanger

You can smell it, can't you?

The days have grown longer and the flowers may be blooming, but these signifiers of Spring are all inconsequential to the footballing fanatic.

With the temperature rising, realistically and metaphorically, and the pretenders now separated from the contenders, it can only mean one thing - finals football.

Sure, in a standard season we would only be days away from a do or die clash in front of a packed house at the MCG, but 2020 has proven that tried and true recipes are not to be regarded.

Even though the frenetic home and away season has rounded the bend and passed the post, the job is still ahead of eight clubs in their hunt for the 'Covid Cup'.

With a week off before the season's after party begins, each of the octet of coaches who have received invitations still have chores to perform before the champagne corks can be cracked

From the eighth seed to there first, here are the 2020 premiership contender's ‘to do lists'.

Collingwood

Games of football are won on the scoreboard and if Collingwood are to salute for the first time since 2010, they will need to rectify their scoring woes.

The re-injection of Jordan De Goey should go a long way to helping the misfiring Magpies.

In the first seven rounds of this season, the Magpies averaged 61.5 points for and a miserly 42.5 points against. Sure, the scores they put on the board weren't anything to write home about, but with the stingiest defense in the league, the Pies held a 4-1-2 record entering their round eight fixture. In the period that De Goey was sidelined, they averaged a measly 52.6 for whilst conceding a mean of 59.5.

With a makeshift forward line, this statistic is hardly surprising. The three tall targets Collingwood have used in this season include a wildly inconsistent newcomer to the game (Mason Cox), a man better known as a ruckman (Darcy Cameron) and a player who was originally drafted as an intercept defender (Brody Mihocek).

In previous years, they have been able to disguise their lack of a tall target by harvesting goals from their fleet of small forwards. However, with Stephenson, Elliott, Thomas and Hoskin-Elliot combining for just 2.2 goals a game, there aren't enough reams in the western hemisphere to paper over the cracks.

It wouldn't surprise anyone to suggest that Buckley and the black and white brass will be keen to see a higher return from their investment in Brodie Grundy. The big man has failed to reach the heights of his previous pair of seasons, but remains a crucial cog in the Collingwood machine.

Despite De Goey's goal laden return, there have been no willing participants to ride tandem with him for any prolonged portion of time. If the former Oakleigh Charger is forced to continue pedaling unaccompanied, then it will likely be curtains for Collingwood's season.


Western Bulldogs

Having snuck in with a final round victory, the Bulldogs still have multiple errands to run before the ball is bounced in their elimination clash against the Saints.

Of the pair of worries that have coach Luke Beveridge tearing at his perpetually slick locks, only one is entirely within his control.

Over the course of the shortened 2020 season, Beveridge has used a whopping thirty-nine players from his list of forty-five. This may provide unforeseeable benefits in the future, but it still doesn't cease Bulldogs supporters bemoaning the revolving door at selection time. Albeit through the mediums of social media platforms, the Footscray faithful repeatedly raise a salient question – does Beveridge actually know what his best twenty-two looks like?

Having seen almost every possible combination by now, these fans will be hopeful that ‘Bevo' has made up his mind by the this late stage of the season.

In the wake of Aaron Naughton's facial injury that looks to require surgery, Beveridge will also be praying that out of form recruit Josh Bruce will step up to the plate. If he can recapture even a modicum of his past success and add to his paltry total of twelve goals since crossing from St. Kilda, then the forward line bereft of tall targets may be able to post a winning score.

Should some stability at the selection table arise and their mustachioed spearhead start slotting the big sticks, the Dogs should be bullish that their best can beat most.


St. Kilda

The Saints runaway victory over GWS in round 18 has granted the success starved club their first finals berth in nine years. Sure, Brett Ratten's flock of fledgling footballers got the job done in the end, but it no doubt came at the expensive of many sets of fingernails in Melbourne's bayside suburbs.

In-between their resounding victory over a rebuilding Sydney in round nine and their final round success, the Saints form flattened. The catalyst for this leveling can be found when analysing their output from forward fifty entries during this period.

In this seven game span, St. Kilda sent the ball into their attacking arc on 299 occasions at an average of 42.7 a game. This was above their season average of 41.3. Their efficiency when heading inside fifty sat at 46.9%, below their 2020 average of 47.7%.
Over this septet of encounters, the Saints scored a combined 407 points at an average of 58.1 per game, including 57 goals at an average of 8.1 a game.
Run these raw numbers through a calculator and you will find that of these 299 entries, only 19% of them ended in goals.

Quite simply, this percentage is far too low.

The Saints did manage to blow some cobwebs out in their win over the giants, but with the screws expected to tighten in the post season, the possibility of another decline will have Ratten's brow wet.


West Coast

The Eagles are yet another team producing performances at the consistency of a dial up internet connection.

In the comforts of their craypot home ground, West Coast have amassed an unbeaten 7-0 record this season. Although when asked to spread their wings for the sunshine state, they have won only five of ten.
For a team that not only netted a flag just two years ago, but should also be adept at regularly living and winning away from home, this is well below par.

With the announcement that the grand final will be played in Queensland, due in no small part to WA premier Mark McGowan's stringent border controls, the Eagles will have to learn to produce their best away from Perth.

Although finishing fifth has allowed for the Eagles to play an elimination final at home, they will need to find a way to succeed in the sunshine state. Their wins over St. Kilda and North Melbourne (both truly microcosmic representations of their time in Queensland this season) were a start, but the trend must continue.

Simpson will also need to find an option to aide Tom Barrass down back during Jeremy McGovern's absence.


Geelong


In-between losses to Collingwood and Richmond, the Cats accumulated a 7-1 record and reached Phalaris levels of mercilessness. With an average of 78.5 points for per game and less than 43 against, they were firing at both ends of the ground.

As the former form team in the competition, Geelong will need to regroup after being taught a late season lesson by the competition's benchmark before being run close by a young Sydney outfit. Put simply, they need to quickly return their paw the accelerator pedal.

Apart from refocusing his troop's eyes back on the task at hand, the quandaries that face Chris Scott are several pronged.

The first of the pair may not seem like an issue at all, but how does the bearded Scott get all of his stars to return to the fold seamlessly?

The returning names are all obviously in the Cat's best twenty-two, still, including and excluding talent at this late stage of the year has the ability to derail progression. However, with many fringe players failing to fire a shot against the Tigers, the decisions ahead of the match committee has been made a whole lot easier.

Richmond's defense also highlighted the need for a secondary attacking target in hoops to deflect attention from Tom Hawkins. To borrow a term for the basketballing lexicon, Scott may look at playing 'small ball' with the two Garys (Ablett and Rohan) returning and Dangerfield in the forward arc. The 2016 Brownlow medalist's five second half scoring shots suggest that this is the most likely option.

On the other hand, he may head in the opposite direction and rotate Stanley and Ratugolea between centre bounces and the forward fifty. Oft-forgotten recruit Josh Jenkins could also be in line for a post season role.

Scott will also no doubt be spending time staring at the ceiling wondering whether to alter the game plan that was torn to shreds by the Tigers or just backing in the skill of his reinstated cavalry.

In accordance with these qualms, the painful memories attached to the tinkering with talent in last season's preliminary final will still be fresh in Scott's mind. With another year understanding his seasoned list, Geelong fans will be hopeful that a repeat of any urges, such as playing Mark Blicavs out of position with a lead on the board, aren't acted upon.

Unlike the Tigers and Eagles, the Cats haven't tasted the ultimate success since 2011 and with the flag-less Patrick Dangerfield leading the Mogs to the after party once more, a lack of desire is not a hurdle that needs hopping.


Richmond

After playing up and coming off the tracks, many of us have been told by parental figures to pull our heads in and knuckle down. With Richmond's current run of off-field distractions, similar admonishments are no doubt ringing in the playing group's ears.

Since their September success in 2017, the wider footballing public has been made aware of the Tiger's new found culture that is supposedly born of empathy and understanding, but with the recent tone deaf flouts of regulations, it has been suggested that perhaps we have mistaken culture for simply winning. Irrespective of any existing values or not, their victory over the previously barnstorming Cats was the best possible advertisement that they haven't forgotten the recipe to on-field success.

The club's on-field record in the past three seasons is without doubt the current benchmark in the game, so producing isn't the issue, however, can it be guaranteed? The potential concern facing Damian Hardwick is how does he continue to motivate a group that has already tasted success twice?

The other qualm facing the Punt Roaders is how to seamlessly introduce their seasoned talent back into the lineup. Identical to quandary facing the Geelong match committee, Hardwick will know that any potential inclusions, and in turn exclusions, have the capability to disrupt their recent run of success.

Injuries to Ivan Soldo and Tom Lynch do not help the equation either.

On current form, you would need to be brave or stupid to tip against the Tigers, but if there is such a thing as bottled success stored at Tigerland, now is the time to air the contents.


Brisbane

There are two major concerns facing Chris Fagan before the commencement of the finals and they are located at both ends of the ground.

For the past two seasons, Brisbane's accuracy at goal has been nightmare fuel for the bespectacled Fagan. In 2019, the Lions had 311 shots for goal, with upwards of 60% of those fired from less than twenty-five metres out. Of this triple ton, only 47% found their way through the big sticks. That number had dipped to 40% heading into the Lion's clash with Sydney.

Now this percentage is skewed by the amount of maroon clad midfielders taking pot shots at goal, but Brisbane's genuine forwards cannot be let off the hook either. Prior to round seventeen, Eric Hipwood was kicking at 44%, Oscar McInerney at 38% and Charlie Cameron at 50% - sadly, an equal club best.

Of Brisbane's seventeen matches this season, only six times have they kicked more goals than behinds. A statistic that sees them sit comfortably as the least accurate team in front of goal.

The loss of full-back Harris Andrews will also have Fagan's brow moist. With the elite defender sidelined with a hamstring injury, Brisbane's match committee decided to promote the inexperienced Jack Payne to fill the void instead of the relying upon makeshift defender Daniel McStay. The stand-in fullback performed admirably against the Suns, but the questions remains about Payne's potential to play on the likes of Hawkins and Charlie Dixon one on one. Should the immature understudy find the task too daunting, Fagan will need to have plans B, C & D up his sleeves.

Intercept defenders Darcy Gardiner and Callum Ah Chee will both need to rise to the occasion and provide a helping hand for Payne in Andrews' absence.

If neither of these boxed are ticked, there is a high likelihood that Brisbane will be bundled out in straight sets for the second successive season.

With a favourable draw in front of them to finish the season and the finals series to be played in familiar surrounds, there has never been a better time to coax the crowds of the early 2000's back to Woolloongabba. The output between the arcs just needs to lift in order to allow them to roar.


Port Adelaide

Having sat atop the table for the entire year, the question about the Alberton crowd has been asked incessantly – do they actually have what it takes to win it all?

Although taking out the McClelland trophy, the query holds weight as all three of Port Adelaide's 2020 losses have come at the hands of fellow finals contenders in Brisbane, St. Kilda and Geelong.

Naturally, the playing group will have asked themselves this at numerous stages across the course of the year, but with their contemporary form in mind, you would imagine you would be hard pressed to find any Port player that felt they couldn't.

With a home final and the double chance secured, coach Ken Hinkley will need to ask his team to look within themselves again. He may choose to alter nothing in the week off, feeling that tinkering with too much could lead to confusion. Conversely, he may choose to keep his team spry and challenge them to improve again. Only he knows his group well enough to pull the trigger or leave it holstered.

Despite finishing as minor premiers, Port cannot afford to be complacent heading into the finals. Their ‘Portress' at the Adelaide Oval will seem less formidable to any travelling team due to Covid restrictions on capacity. However, should a repeat of their string of early 2000's post season chokes occur, the parochial crowd will no doubt make their thoughts known.

Published by
Zero Hanger