Every club’s biggest ‘what if’ moment of the AFL era – Part Two

What if the Dockers kicked straight in the 2013 Grand Final?

I have to admit that I was very keen to run with ‘what if Fremantle decided upon a different nickname?' for this portion, but aside from simple branding differences, I concluded that the club's history would have remained relatively similar.

However, as a club that has only ever played in one grand final in their history, my query has to become centered around that particular moment in time.

After dispatching fellow top four finishers Geelong and Sydney in September of 2013, the Fremantle Dockers were afforded their first opportunity to add something tangible to their trophy case when they faced off against Hawthorn in the season's final game.

Having never made it to the oft-titled ‘big dance' in their previous 18 campaigns, the Dockers were predictably nervous against their more seasoned avian opponents, and showed as much by producing just two scoring shots to the Hawks' five in the first term.

Frustratingly for head coach Ross Lyon, both of the westerner's strikes at goal ended in behinds, whilst Hawthorn - the year's leading side – was good enough to finish the stanza with 2.3 on the board.

This failure to convert continued throughout the second term, with Lyon's men entering the sheds with a wasteful 1.6 to their name as opposed to the Waverley-based club's 5.5.

Although the routinely maligned expansion franchise would eventually split the sticks for a second time in the second minute of the third term, and would eventually draw within three points of their opponents in the 25^th minute of the ‘premiership quarter', by the time the siren sounded to end the third term, the Dockers were back down by double digits.

Following an Alastair Clarkson rev-up at the final break, Hawthorn proceeded to post the next six scoring shots of the game at a coin flip conversion rate of 50 per-cent.

In spite of this, the Fremantle continued to fight and produced the final six scores of the game.

However, when the final hooter blew, and the Hawks had claimed the first of their impending three-peat of flags, the margin sat at 15 points despite both teams finishing with 22 shots that registered a score.

Now, it wouldn't take a NASA-trained technician to see where I am going with this, especially as I have already provided you with the question we are dissecting in bold print on this very page.

Still, if the club that is currently competing in their 27^th season had converted their shots at better than 37 per-cent when it mattered most in their 19^th, would they still be searching for their inaugural flag?

To aid in our attempts to change history, or at least provide an alternative to reality, let's go to the tape and see where the Dockers were anything but deadly when facing goal.

As can be seen from this trimmed footage, Nat Fyfe – at that stage Brownlow-less – produced a pair of the ugliest set shots in Grand Final history, either one of which would have erased any lead that the Hawks then held.

Nonetheless, as the above vision is part of a ‘highlights' package, we are unlikely to be subjected to a constant stream of Fremantle failures, are we?

SEE ALSO: What if the Bluebaggers were never caught with brown paper bags?

To gain a deeper understanding of whether or not the Dockers could, and should, have broken their drought on September 28, 2013, one can either re-watch the entire contest and run a fine-tooth comb across every attempt at goal, or they could save their time and consult those in the know that were there on the day.

According to Champion Data – the official supplier of statistics for the AFL – Fremantle should have won the 2013 decider by a margin of six points.

As numerically minded folk, you would expect the aforementioned company to show their work, and that is just what analyst Glenn Luff did in February of 2014.

“Based on the AFL average across the shots that they had, Freo should have won,'' Luff told the Herald Sun.

“It felt like Hawthorn was in control for most of the game, but you look at the raw numbers and it was all pretty close.

“Hawthorn nailed them and Freo didn't.''

After examining the distance and angle each shot was taken at, as well as the perceived pressure each kicker was under, Champion Data came to the conclusion that had the Dockers taken their chances, the final scoreboard would have read 14.10 (94) to 12.10 (88) in their favour.

This final scoreline is even starker in the cold light of day when you consider that in reality, Fremantle's half-time total of 12 points was at that stage the lowest score for any side at that stage of a Grand Final for 53 years.

With Fremantle producing five more shots on goal than Hawthorn – 29 to 24  – Luff and his team placed a sizeable portion of the blame at the feet of Hayden Ballantyne and Nat Fyfe, as the pair combined for just under a quarter of the Dockers' total shots (7), yet only managed a paltry 0.3 between them.

Fyfe's failures in front of goal were only compounded by the fact that up until the final afternoon of the season he had converted a dead-eyed 12.1 in 2013.

“My goalkicking hasn't let me down all year and it sort of did today,'' the then budding star said in the immediate aftermath of the loss.

“I can't put it down to anything. There's no real excuse. It just didn't go right on the day.''

Although Luffs' weighted opinion answers our question, all it is likely to do for members of the ‘Purple Haze' is to open their most painful shared wound.

Still, with Justin Longmuir's side slowly trending upwards, and Fyfe still the club's most vital cog, the Lake Grace lad may yet get his chance at atonement before the sun sets on his already tremendous career.

In addition to the fact that their trophy case would no longer be bare, Lyon's game style that saw him fall short at the final hurdle on three occasions in two seasons at St Kilda would have been vindicated, so the question also needs to be asked – would Longmuir even be in his current post?

However, even though this is a curly question that deserves an answer, it is one that we will save for another day.