Eight players from the 2022 AFL Draft predicted to have breakout seasons

The 2022 AFL Draft class is shaping up and becoming more promising with every day that passes. Possessing a variety of talents, the class of ‘22 has certainly provided clubs and playing lists with a service that clubs will be hoping to hold onto for the entirety of their playing careers.

While some stars have already emerged and established themselves, like Norm Smith medallist Will Ashcroft and North Melbourne's very own duo of Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw, the class still has the potential to deliver on more of the promise it entailed.

This article explores eight players we believe are ready to take a leap, matching a prediction for each of them heading into the 2025 season.

Aaron Cadman

The number one draft pick of the 2022 class; Aaron Cadman will be a prime breakout candidate for the Giants.

In 2024, Cadman became a mainstay of the best 23 - improving his senior games tally from 12 in his first year to 23 in his second. Part of the leap came as he was able to improve his forward craft, an admittedly tough task for a teenager entering the AFL. His goal tally improved from a measly six in 2022 to 30 in 2024 and, most importantly, it was evident to everyone watching that he was playing with a greater level of confidence. 

If you'd watched the prodigious talent prior to entering the AFL you'd have likened his style of play to the likes of legends present and past; Jeremy Cameron and Nick Riewoldt. Despite checking in at 195cm, Cadman glides around the ground and works tirelessly to get from contest to contest. While he's nowhere near the heights of those previously mentioned, it is easy to see the comparisons in their game.

For now, the Giants have recognised this and deployed him as a pseudo-ruck to help provide Kieren Briggs with the rest he needs. This has helped Cadman utilise his gut running and verticality to impact the game away from the scoreboard.

We could see the talented forward elevate his game to new heights across the ground and provide the necessary workrate and space for the Giants to allow Toby Greene and Jesse Hogan to operate as stay-at-home forwards for the Giants.

Prediction: Cadman ends the season with at least 30 goals.

Elijah Tsatas

For more reasons than one, Elijah Tsatas has been one of the most talked about rookies of this class despite only playing 11 games for Essendon. Taken with Pick 5, many were surprised to see Tsatas off the board when the likes of Mattaes Phillipou and Bailey Humphrey were still on the board - as many believed they addressed greater needs for the Bombers.

Nevertheless, the club's list management saw something they liked in the 187cm midfielder and selected him. To date, this Essendon midfield has been a tough one to find space for the former Oakleigh Charger, with much of his AFL games being spent on the wing rather than inside the contest where he thrives. 

2024 also saw Sam Durham and Jye Caldwell emerge through the absence of Darcy Parish, so why is Tsatas any more likely to break out this year with what seems like more roadblocks in his way?

For one, there is likely to be more flexibility in positions from some players such as Zach Merrett and Sam Durham, both of whom have been hinted at training in half-back and half-forward roles respectively. Don't expect this to be a full-time role, but it does allow for more avenues to centre bounces for the 20-year-old Tsatas.

Secondly, much of what maligned Tsatas and prevented him from challenging for more games was his kicking. Through his two years in the AFL system thus far, his kicking has been at 50.7% efficiency thus far. Reports coming out of Tullamarine have been about this young prospect changing his kicking technique and putting in extra hours to improve his ball use. This has carried into the pre-season, where has been touted as one of the best on ground through a number of sessions. 

Prediction: Tsatas averages a cool 22 possessions a game and brings his kicking efficiency up past 60%. 

Bailey Humphrey

With Damien Hardwick at the helm, comparisons from his former side and current Gold Coast side have followed. Part of this has been identifying the next Dustin Martin. Bestowed with that title since his draft year has been Bailey Humphrey, who showed game-breaking glimpses and moments of genius in his rookie year. Unfortunately, Humphrey faced the dreaded sophomore slump and had a dogged time in 2024 that saw him take on the sub role on seven different occasions. 

Nearing 50 games for a Suns side looking to break through for a first finals appearance, Humphrey is putting the pressure on his fellow teammates to lock down his spot in their best side in what is set to be a tightly contested position with mainstays such as Ben Ainsworth and Nick Holman, alongside exciting talent Jake Rogers and draftee Leo Lombard all battling for a spot.

What separates the Gippsland Power product from this group is the multifaceted game that he has displayed. He has recorded 10+ contested possessions on five occasions and saw him kick goals in four of them, including a five-goal haul that was coupled with 16 possessions in a 2024 win against Geelong.

Humphrey has shown he is more than capable of breaking a game apart from the inside, which is something the previously mentioned names don't quite have in their arsenal. 

While inconsistency in output and role have plagued the star on the rise so far, Humphrey could slot into a high-half forward role similar to the likes of Dylan Moore and bring a greater stability to his game. Once he's settled, look out.

Prediction: Humphrey kicks 35 goals this season as the Suns make their finals debut.

Mattaes Phillipou

Likened to the great Nat Fyfe in his draft comparison, Mattaes Phillipou put the football world on notice of what he is capable of during the back end of 2024. Prior to that, 2024 was a year of development for the young talent. Early in the season Saints coach Ross Lyon had sent him back to the VFL to develop his midfield craft in what many saw as a controversial decision. After all, this was a Saints side that realistically was ready to take a step back.

By his final four games, Lyon had entrusted Phillipou with a midfield role -  one that the Saints sorely needed to fill - and he delivered. He averaged 22 disposals, up from his career average of 13.3 and season average of 14.4, and kicked a goal in each game. The unexpected breakout pegged him as one of the likeliest breakout candidates of 2025 until he was sidelined with a stress fracture that'll keep him out for the early portion of the season.

Nevertheless, at full health, it seems only natural that the former number 10 pick reaffirms all beliefs that he is going to be a damaging midfielder. The Saints will make it imperative as their current crop of midfielders lack a game-breaking talent, despite the best efforts of Jack Steele and others in the past.

At 190cm, Phillipou is the prototypical modern-day midfielder who just needs more runs on the board before he breaks into the upper echelon of AFL midfielders. Given his unwavering confidence and growth, would it be outlandish to suggest that by season's end the young talent will be St Kilda's best and most important player? Let's hope he gets on the park sooner rather than later.

Prediction: Phillipou records 10+ Brownlow votes despite a delayed start to the season.

Oliver Hollands

Pick 11 in 2022 - Oliver Hollands - has firmly established himself in Carlton's best side early in his career. The hard-running winger has been hinted to have a change of role in the upcoming season, which could see a large uptick in his production on the field. Prior to the Nic Newman injury, Hollands was earmarked to be taking on a half-back distributing role. With Newman out for most - if not all - of the season, that need is greater than ever. 

While the former Murray Bushranger has some ways to go to match the class of his injured teammate, his tireless motor and two-way running are going to benefit him greatly in the new role. All while providing Carlton with a new outlet for handball receives, a job usually trusted with the likes of Sam Walsh and Adam Saad.

Hollands has never been afraid to attack the game by boot either and was fifth among Rising Stars for metres gained in 2023. 2024 saw more opportunity for Blake Acres while Hollands worked the far side of the wing.

Hollands currently averages a modest 14 disposals at 73.3% disposal efficiency. We expect those numbers to bump up closer to 20 disposals and 75% efficiency as he takes kick-ins and is trusted to set up more attacks for Carlton, which could solidify his breakout candidacy. Averaging three score involvements a game as a winger, we could see that number reach somewhere closer to the 5.1 that Dayne Zorko averaged last season as an All-Australian. It's a lofty standard, but one that will be imperative to Carlton's flag hopes in 2025.

Prediction: Hollands leads Carlton for handball receives in 2025.

Elijah Hewett

Local Western Australian talent Elijah Hewett has yet to make his mark on football just yet thanks to injuries. That's why with a presumed clean bill of health, it is so much easier to mark him down as a breakout candidate for the West Coast Eagles.

Selected with Pick 14 in 2022, Hewett brought in greater appeal outside of his locality for the Eagles. Hewett brings a scintillating blend of speed and class to the game that West Coast desperately need. Harley Reid also needs a running mate for the foreseeable future, as the Eagles are still in the process of handing the keys of the midfield over to a young brigade.

Despite his body letting him down, the Swans District product has been able to put together 14 games at AFL level. In those games, he has displayed a vernacular for contested possessions, in which 45.2% of his possessions are contested. A small sample size, sure, but that number is incredibly close to known engine room operators like Jai Newcombe and James Worpel whose percentages sit at 45.7 and 45.9 respectively.

Besides staying healthy, the next step of the soon-be 21-year-old will be finding more of the football and using it efficiently by foot. His 46.8% kicking efficiency just won't cut it.

Supported by veterans like Jack Graham and Elliot Yeo inside, we'll be keeping a close eye on his development and fit alongside Reid as the year progresses and he receives more midfield opportunities. For now, don't be surprised if we see him deployed off half-forward more often than not and tasked with an often unheralded high-pressure role.

Prediction: Hewett to lead West Coast in pressure acts for 2025.

Josh Weddle

Is Josh Weddle the closest thing the AFL has to a unicorn? There have been plenty of utilities in AFL history that have been able to fill a number of needs, think Leigh Brown for Collingwood, but how many have the potential to be a genuine star anywhere on the field?

This is where Weddle fits.

In his career thus far he has played a number of positions and roles including lockdown defender, intercept defender, dashing half-back, winger, secondary ruck and as a third tall up front. In each role he has thrived and left Sam Mitchell and the coaching staff wondering where he will be best utilised moving forward.

Obvious comparisons can be drawn to the Swans' Nick Blakey, and not just because of their ability to rock outstanding mullets. Rather, it's their line-breaking pace and dare to take the game on. In 2024, Weddle ranked 18th for total bounces in the AFL, all while playing the vast positions aforementioned. Some of which are not conducive to taking a bounce. He was also 10th for this statistic in 2023, so this isn't some kind of anomaly.

Many analysts and football experts have gone as far as to say that the 20-year-old icon could eventually be the best player in the game. For some, this could be outrageous, and we won't be expecting Weddle to have a Brownlow Medal or Coleman Medal amongst his accolades when his career comes to an end. However, can we see him having the most impact on winning for the up-and-coming Hawks? Absolutely.

You only need to revisit Hawthorn's Round 22 clash with Carlton and see what the former Oakleigh Charger was able to produce in an extravagant win for his side. Or again, in a forgettable 55-point loss to Melbourne in Round 2, 2024 to see just how versatile this guy really is.

All in all, he is going to put his hand up to take on any challenge Mitchell throws at him. Given their big man injury problems and the inability of Ned Reeves and Lloyd Meek to co-exist thus far, don't be surprised if we see more and more of Josh Weddle as a ruckman.

Prediction: Weddle's reliance as a supporting ruck option increases.

Ed Allan

Collingwood may not publicly be screaming out for some youth to knock down the doors into the senior side, but fans certainly are and none look more promising than Ed Allan. Allan logged his first two senior games for the Pies and averaged a steady 14 disposals and four tackles in 2024. 

Without much AFL exposure, much of what we can analyse comes through the VFL. So far through 33 VFL games, Allan has averaged 19.6 disposals, 2.5 marks, 3.4 tackles and has kicked eight goals. These aren't exactly standout numbers, and they don't necessarily have to be. Especially for a Collingwood midfield that already has its A-grade talents in Nick Daicos and Jordan De Goey and just needs players to play complementary roles for the time being.

Ideally for the Magpies, Allan develops into that next star, but there isn't a rush just yet. Instead, the former Claremont youngster should be given time to hone his craft at AFL level, splitting time between the wings and on the inside.

The former Pick 19 selection debatably has the weakest case statistically to suggest a leap is on the way. Instead, a pure need for growth from young talent for the Pies and the opportunity to take hold of it is the driving factor for him being selected.

Everyone hates to see a club legend forced out of the side, but if Collingwood are going to continue to battle for finals positions for the foreseeable future, the Magpies will need someone like Allan to force coach Craig McRae to be ruthless at selection and keep him on.

Prediction: Allan plays 15+ games for the Pies and forces a beloved veteran out of the side.