Five rounds left in the season and our top eight is about as close as can get. Right now, there is just one win separating the second placed Giants and the eighth placed Kangaroos.
Now that we are well and truly entrenched in the run home, let’s take a look at one big weakness for each club in the top eight.
Hawthorn Hawks: Contested possession
$1.90 to reach the grand final with TopSport
While the brilliance and experience of the Hawks leaves not too many weaknesses, there is one common denominator in each of their three losses this season, that being contested possessions.
In their losses this season to the Cats, Giants and the Swans, they have been beaten in contested possessions 475 to 389 – by almost 100. Even more concerning, the cumulative margin of these three matches is 119.
Obviously, the midfields mentioned above are three of the best (if not the best three) in the competition, so an edge in that area may be expected. But it almost certain that these are the teams they will have to beat on the road to a quartet of flags.
The Hawks are in fact 14th in the league for contested possessions, averaging just 135.9 per game. However, they have still found a way to win the majority of their games, with their immense pressure resulting in opposition turnovers.
None the less, it is still an area Clarkson will want to improve upon come Spetember.
Greater Western Sydney Giants: Inexperience
$3.00 to reach the grand final with TopSport
It almost seems like a cop out now to suggest the Giants will fall victim to inexperience in the finals, but there is no doubt it is still a very real possibility.
Only three players on their list (Steve Johnson, Shane Mumford and Heath Shaw) have played in a premiership, and not too many more have played in finals. When it comes to September, the majority of the list will not know what to expect, and they may find out the hard way.
If the Giants are not at their brilliant best at finals time, it may be that their inexperience catches up with them when a close game is on the line.
Sydney Swans: Selections
$2.80 to reach the grand final with TopSport
Sydney head coach John Longmire has made it perfectly clear that he will be picking the 22 most in form players at each position, with tried and tested favourites such as Ben McGlynn and Ted Richards seeing time in the reserves this year.
While the tactic has paid off so far, will work against them at finals time? Will Longmire continue to pick young key defender Aliir Aliir, with not more than a handful of games of experience, over dual premiership defender Richards?
The answer is that no one quite knows yet, and it’s fantastic for the club to have the headache in the first place. But as the old proverb goes, “a man with one watch will always know the time, a man with two is never quite sure”.
Geelong Cats: Missing midfield
$2.40 to reach the grand final with TopSport
At it’s best, the 2016 incarnation of Geelong’s midfield is as good as they get, with Joel Selwood leading the club with his head over the footy, and Patrick Dangerfield making a strong case for the league’s best player in the competition.
However, in most of their five losses this year, the Cats have gone missing through the guts for a quarter or more at a time, often due to the opposition’s dominance in the ruck or in the clearances.
Case in point, the matches against the Giants, Swans, and even the Magpies, their opponents jumped out to big leads in one period, with the Cattery rallying late but not quite getting there.
During the home and away season, the consequence is four missed competition points. In the finals, the consequence is much, much larger.
West Coast Eagles: Too soft?
$4.60 to reach the top four with TopSport
West Coast Eagles head coach Adam Simpson seems to constantly be insisting his team are not flat track bullies, but with every passing week, it seems more and more the reality.
In their six match-ups with top eight opponents this year, the only team they have beaten is North Melbourne, currently in eighth place.
They have not exactly just challenged their opponents in four of those matches either – the margins include a 46-point loss to Hawthorn, a 39-points to the Swans, 44-points to Geelong, and 29-points to the Crows, with and eight-point loss to the Bulldogs the only close loss.
Their saving grace is that only one of those losses (to Adelaide) came at home. It still makes for unnerving reading for a West Coast fan.
Adelaide Crows: Leaky defence
$1.24 to make the top four with TopSport
We all know the Crows can kick a hell of a score when on song – but Adelaide's attacking game style can also leak goals, currently coming in at seventh in the league for points against.
The Crows have thus far conceded 84 points per game, while most of their top eight rivals are averaging far less.
Sydney is conceding an average of 69 points per game, the Bulldogs 73, Geelong 73, West Coast 75, GWS 79 and Hawthorn is conceding an average of 80 points per game.
So while the Crows can certainly kick a winning score, if a team can find a way to stop their forward line, then they may be in trouble come finals.
Jake Lever and Kyle Cheney have had good seasons, but the undisputed king of the Crows’ backline is Daniel Talia, who will shoulder a lot of the work in the finals.
Is their defence of premiership quality? Probably not.
Western Bulldogs: Injuries
$5.50 to make the top four with TopSport
The Western Bulldogs have showed they have some decent depth outside their best 22, but there usually comes a time for at least one club a season where they are so maligned by injuries that it all becomes too much.
We may indeed be reaching that time for the Bulldogs.
Losing captain Robert Murphy early in the season was bad enough. Every club from the Hawks to the Brisbane Lions would love to have him out on the park, and he is not the All-Australian captain just for being a good bloke.
They have done well to survive without him, but after losing key forward Jack Redpath and midfielder Mitch Wallis, their depth may be tested to breaking point.
North Melbourne Kangaroos: Injuries
$13.00 to make the grand final with TopSport
Right now, it is almost awkward to look at North in eighth spot, given they were first just a matter of weeks ago. While many will now be happy to write them off for the rest of the year, I think it is just a matter of time before they start to find form again.
Looking down their injury list, they currently miss Aaron Black, Shaun Higgins and Luke McDonald among others, all with mid to long-term injuries. The missing goals of Jarrad Waite have similarly taken a large toll.
In an earlier article I predicted this unceremonious fall of the Kangaroos, but I’m fairly confident once they get their key players back on the park, they have the weaponry to salvage their season.