The last decade has seen two dynasties capitalise on their dominance by securing multiple premierships, while a host of one-time wonders have filtered through the AFL landscape.

But were they always destined to achieve the ultimate glory based on their early-season form?

After the first six rounds of the season, fans and keen observers start to get a feel of where each team is placed in the league pecking order, and more often than not, it has determined the penultimate weekend's fixture.

Dating back a decade (2016), we've been able to identify that all but one premier (Brisbane, 2024) were placed inside the top eight at the completion of Round 6.

The Lions defied the odds to turn around a poor form slump from the previous years' deciding loss to Collingwood, as well as the shopping-list-sized injury group, to not only finals contention, but premiership tussling.

Former skipper shares "little secret" behind Brisbane's 2024 premiership turnaround
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 28: Leigh Matthews watches on as Chris Fagan, Senior Coach of the Lions, Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko and Harris Andrews of the Lions hoist the premiership cup during the AFL Grand Final match between Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on September 28, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos)

A stoic September saw Chris Fagan take his team from outside the top four - a feat only achieved once before - through each week of the finals until the big dance, where they reversed the result from 12 months prior to salute over Sydney.

But looking further into those stats, six of those 10 victors were looking at double chances in the early stage of their respective campaigns, securing enough victories to be placed in the top four.

As for the fellow grand finalists, only one team (Collingwood, 2018) was placed outside the top eight.

The preliminary finalists also see largely well-starting teams feature in the penultimate week, except GWS (2023) and Melbourne (2018), who were both 12th after Round 6.

Melbourne Decade Quiz
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 14: Nathan Jones and Jack Viney of the Demons celebrate winning the AFL Semi Final match between the Hawthorn Hawks and the Melbourne Demons at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 14, 2018 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

So what will 2026 show?

The release of next season's schedule has the minor premiers Adelaide opening their year with a tough run, facing three finalists as well as aspiring September teams in the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda.

Brisbane has a mixed bag, but is likely to come out of the opening weeks of the 2026 campaign with a positive win-loss record, which should be the same for Gold Coast, who face only one finalist in that block.

Port Adelaide's extremely soft start could see Josh Carr get the ball rolling in his coaching career, facing the bottom four sides in the opening month before clashes against St Kilda and Hawthorn.

North Melbourne, too, has been favoured in terms of an easier start to 2026, taking on the reigning premiers as the only finalist from Rounds 1-6.

Sydney's desire to return to the finals is aided by winnable games against Carlton and West Coast, while contests against the expansion clubs and the Lions will prove tricky to get a fast start.

2026 AFL Fixture Rounds OR-6

  • Adelaide - Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Fremantle, Carlton and St Kilda
  • Brisbane - Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Bye, St Kilda, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Melbourne
  • Carlton - Sydney, Richmond, Bye, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Collingwood
  • Collingwood - St Kilda, Adelaide, Bye, GWS, Brisbane, Fremantle, Carlton
  • Essendon - Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Gold Coast
  • Fremantle - Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide, Collingwood, West Coast
  • Geelong - Gold Coast, Fremantle, Bye, Adelaide, Hawthorn, West Coast, Western Bulldogs
  • Gold Coast - Geelong, West Coast, Richmond, Bye, Melbourne, Sydney, Essendon
  • GWS - Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Collingwood, Bye, Richmond, Sydney
  • Hawthorn - GWS, Essendon, Sydney, Bye, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide
  • Melbourne - St Kilda, Fremantle, Carlton, Gold Coast, Essendon, Brisbane
  • North Melbourne - Port Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon, Carlton, Brisbane, Richmond
  • Port Adelaide - North Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast, Richmond, St Kilda, Hawthorn
  • Richmond - Carlton, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, GWS, North Melbourne
  • St Kilda - Collingwood, Melbourne, GWS, Brisbane, Bye, Port Adelaide, Adelaide
  • Sydney - Carlton, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Bye, West Coast, Gold Coast, GWS
  • West Coast - Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong, Fremantle
  • Western Bulldogs - Brisbane, GWS, Adelaide, Bye, Essendon, Hawthorn, Geelong

Get set for the footy with the FREE Zero Hanger 2026 AFL Season Guide! Packed with 150+ pages of player profiles, team previews, insights and analysis, the 2026 AFL Season Guide is built for fans who want the full picture. Download your free Season Guide HERE.

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