This year's AFL Draft is in line to be the third consecutive count that sees close to 30 selections made on the opening night of the national talent intake, with Academy and father-son bids, as well as potential free agency compensation, set to shake up the current order of picks at the top end of the board.
Half of the opening eight picks in the current draft order have already swapped hands, seeing Richmond (Picks 2 and 3) and Essendon (Picks 5 and 6) holding two selections each after trade deals with North Melbourne and Melbourne, respectively, last year.
Hawthorn have attained Carlton's first-round selection (Pick 7), while Gold Coast hold Port Adelaide's opening pick a spot later in the indicative draft order.
The Hawks don't have their opening pick, having sent that to West Coast, while the Suns hold a third first-round selection after acquiring Collingwood's selection in the same deal that involved the Power's.
Gold Coast have again loaded up on early picks, with this year's crop of Academy kids looming as their best yet, despite attaining five club-linked prospects over the past two intakes.
Flashy flankers Zeke Uwland and Dylan Patterson both firm as top 10, and perhaps top five, prospects in this year's draft, while midfielder Beau Addinsall is another first-round talent, and utility Koby Coulson could sneak into opening night calculations.
But it won't just be the Suns' incoming bids that will significantly shift the current queue, with Brisbane Academy prospect Dan Annable, Carlton father-son key defender Harry Dean, Essendon NGA pairing Adam Sweid and Hussien El Achkar, Fremantle NGA midfielder Toby Whan, Richmond father-son Louis Kellaway and West Coast-tied forward Wes Walley also in the conversation.
If there were "only" five bids from this batch of top-rated teenagers, that would see the total number of selections balloon out to 23 picks, already a couple shy of the 2024 draft's first round - not including the pair of AFL assistance package picks handed to North Melbourne and used by the Swans and Roos.
But the 2025 tally will soon blow past 2024's total of 23 first-round selections and close in on 2023's 29 picks, with free agency set to have a large influence on the draft order this year.
The first round for 2023 included five Academy bids, two father-son selections and three free agency compensation picks. The 2024 breakdown reads three, one and three, plus the two selections added to the end of night one by the AFL for the Kangaroos.
FULL CURRENT DRAFT ORDER FOR 2025
The biggest contract decisions set to shape the earliest handful of picks will come from West Coast co-captain Oscar Allen, Carlton ruckman Tom De Koning and Essendon big man Sam Draper, with all three of those clubs currently sitting in the bottom seven on the ladder.
Band one compensation for Allen, should he leave the Eagles, would see West Coast pocket Pick 2 in the draft and force everyone else waiting in line to take a step back.
De Koning looks a certainty to trigger band one compensation for the Blues, should he opt for St Kilda's advances, which would see Carlton re-enter the top 10 of the draft and hold the selection after Hawthorn are on the clock.
The idea of Essendon securing band one compensation would be significant for the Bombers, and a headache for those in the queue behind them, but it's also unlikely.
Even still, end-of-first-round compensation for Draper, who has reported interest from Adelaide and Brisbane, would add another pick to the first night of the draft.
There are still free agency decisions to be made by Brisbane for Brandon Starcevich, Hawthorn's James Worpel and Carlton's Jack Silvagni.
The Lions will be in a balancing act when it comes to the Starcevich and Allen situations, as if both were to leave their respective clubs via free agency, then the compensation for Starcevich would be diluted, as the reigning premiers would secure a high-priced free agent of their own.
If a rival club were to pay Silvagni the value his 2025 warrants, then a first-round pick would be added to the mix once more.
It'll only take one club keen enough on James Worpel for his potential departure to hand an early pick to the Hawks, with the likes of Harry Perryman (band one), Isaac Cumming (band two), Tom Doedee (band two) and Jade Gresham (band two) having triggered first-round picks as compensation in the past two years.
So which clubs are set to receive the short end of the stick?
The Saints, who have made their gripe with the AFL's priority prospect system known, could be the third club to make a selection on draft night but come in at fifth overall.
Sydney, who hold Pick 9, might not be on the clock until close to the midway mark of the first round, with the Western Bulldogs a rung behind them in the current draft order.
Fremantle (Pick 12), GWS (Pick 13), Geelong (Pick 15) and Adelaide (Pick 16) are likely waiting until close to the end of draft night one.
But it's not just the first evening of the count where there will be headaches, with West Coast, who hold the opening pick of the second round at Pick 19, potentially not having access to any of the top 25 or 30 prospects in this year's pool.
North Melbourne's first pick comes at 20 overall, and could be in the 30s by the time they make their first selection, while Melbourne are three spots back.
While trading out of this year's first-round calculations to attain prospects in last year's draft, both the Roos and Demons can take some positives from those deals, despite their disappointing campaigns to date.
The Roos held high value in Matt Whitlock, who they traded their 2025 first-round pick for and also got Richmond's 2025 second-round selection, were keen to take the Murray Bushrangers teenager as early as the top 10 last year if they could.
The young key defender would likely be in the top 10 mix for this year's count, while Melbourne's Xavier Lindsay, who the Demons attained in a deal that sent Essendon their top pick for this year, might've been a Pick 1 contender in 2025.
