AFL Draft: How much your club is set to pay for its club-tied prospects in 2025

With the order of the 2025 AFL Draft starting to take shape, clubs are beginning to grasp how this year's compromised and unpredictable count might actually unfold.

AFL clubs and their list teams put in months of assessment just to get some understanding of when prospects tied to AFL clubs might be selected, and the chain reaction that comes as a result of those changes to the draft order.

Next month's free agency window will also have a significant impact on the draft order, with the league's 'herbs and spices' compensation formula potentially seeing four or more first-round picks added to the opening night order. 

For clubs that have linked prospects favoured for early selections, the placement of these compensation picks will be critical in how their points tally, and therefore, remaining draft plans, unfold. 

DRAFT ORDER: THE PICKS YOUR CLUB CURRENTLY HOLDS

The AFL has already made moves to increase the difficulty of matching bids for top-rated father-son and Academy talent, having decreased the value of middle-range selections, which have often been used as a package to match bids as early as Pick 2 in recent years.

Selections 55 and later no longer hold value, while the 20 per cent discount for matched first-round bids has been halved from this year. 

So, how much will each club be coughing up for the names they have priority access to?

For Gold Coast, they might have two of the first four selections coming out of their Academy in Zeke Uwland and Dylan Patterson.

For the sake of exercise, let's assume bids from rivals come at Picks 2 and 4. Then, the Suns will need 2233 and 1766 points to match those bids, respectively.

Gold Coast, currently, has 4061 points at their disposal, ensuring they'll need to trade some of their draft hand, which includes three first-round picks, to get the needed points for Uwland and Patterson alone.

Their Queensland counterparts, Brisbane, will be in a similar position with Academy star Dan Annable, who falls in a similar range to his Allies teammates Uwland and Patterson.

Brisbane currently have 1664 points, meaning a bid earlier than Pick 5 for Annable would see them fall short. 

Carlton may also find themselves needing the required points for a top-five bid, with father-son talent Harry Dean emerging as a likely selection in the first half of the opening round of the draft.

The Blues' total of 527 draft points is the second lowest of any AFL club, and would only be enough to match a bid at Pick 26, and that also includes that selection coming in an extended first-round of the draft, and not early into night two when the 10 per cent discount won't come into calculations. 

Carlton are set to acquire free agency compensation for the loss of Tom De Koning, with band one compensation placing them in ninth overall on the draft board, which is valued at 1355 points, bringing their tally to 1882 points, for now. That would have them able to match a bid at Pick 6 or later for Dean.

The next most likely Academy or father-son bid might not come until the end of night one, or potentially the start of the second round, but there are a handful of club-tied teenagers who fall into this range. 

Essendon NGA talent Adam Sweid, St Kilda-tied utility Kye Fincher, Swans Academy duo Max King and Lachy Carmichael, Suns prospect Beau Addinsall, Collingwood NGA forward Zac McCarthy and Cats prospect Jesse Mellor.

What will be interesting for the clubs involved is the timing of potential bids, with a selection at the end of the first round potentially more beneficial than one early into the second, given the 10 per cent discount isn't eligible after the first night of the draft.

With the four earlier matched bids expected, coupled with, let's say, three band one compensation selections, the first round of the draft will balloon out to 25 selections, and that's not including these potential late first-round bids. 

A bid at Pick 25 on night one would come in at 531 points, while a bid at Pick 26 on night two would be valued at 561 points. 

So for Essendon, Sydney, Geelong, Collingwood and St Kilda, there will be a fascinating watch for them come the final stages of night one. 

For the Suns, well, they'll be needing to stock up on points once more for Addinsall, having likely taken Uwland and Patterson early in the count and losing almost all of their points. 

But the planning for Gold Coast doesn't stop there, with a fourth Academy talent in Koby Coulson also a chance to come in the back end of the draft, but potentially before the points index reaches zero at Pick 55. 

Essendon will again be awaiting a second NGA come this part of the night, with another NGA talent, Hussien El Achkar, a chance to fall in this window. 

Carlton and Collingwood could also have their second bids of the night, with Jack Ison and Tom McGuane, respectively, a chance to fetch late bids. 

Fremantle's Toby Whan, Melbourne father-son Kalani White and Richmond-tied South Australian Louis Kellaway are others who could fetch rival bids before Pick 55.

The list of club link prospects doesn't end there, with clubs hoping their prospects stay on the board past the Pick 55 barrier, and potentially end up in the rookie intake, where they can fall into a category B list spot.

Other club-tied prospects who could be picked up on draft night include:

Noah Chamberlain (Sydney)
Harry Kyle (Sydney)
Will Darcy (Western Bulldogs)
Koby Evans (West Coast)
Wes Walley (West Coast)
Mitch Stevens (Adelaide)
Ty Gresham (Carlton)
Tylah Williams (West Coast)
Ben Rongdit (Geelong)
Jai Murray (Gold Coast)
Cooper Collins (Gold Coast)
Toby Sinnema (Melbourne)
Charlie Banfield (West Coast)