Since the current top eight finals system was introduced in 2000, an average of 2.8 new teams join the top eight every year, although that average has increased to 3.2 since 2010.
While no fewer than two new teams have ever risen to the challenge of September, it's more likely that three bottom-ten finishers in 2025 will exchange places with finalists from last year in 2026.
The AFL will officially introduce a new top 10 finals system in 2026, which features the Wildcard Finals Round between teams placed seventh through 10th, but this article will look at teams expected to rise into the top eight, given that positions 1-8 will still determine the core finals participants who receive significant advantages (such as a week off for the top six and home finals hosting rights for all eight), while 9th and 10th must win a high-stakes play-in on the road just to enter the traditional finals bracket.
2025 saw a significant change in the post-season fixtures, with four top eight sides - Sydney, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and Carlton - all falling from the finals.
Adelaide, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Collingwood were the rivals to claim a spot in September in their place.
Which clubs will fall, and which clubs will rise in 2026? Undertaking a view from a statistical perspective, here is what recent history suggests will be the change in order next year.
Who makes way?
Since 2010, 44 teams that have made finals have fallen out of the eight the following season. The top four sides are by far more stable in returning to September the next year, while teams placed fifth through eighth are more likely to drop from the finals.
However, 2025 was an anomaly in that sense, with the top two home-and-away sides from 2024, the Swans and Power, both experiencing significant drop-offs last year to miss September altogether.
However, joining them were the sixth-seeded Bulldogs and eighth-seeded Blues, who continued the trend of those positions making way the following season, with the ladder positions failing to make finals the next year nine and 10 times since 2010, respectively.
This would be alarming for Hawthorn fans, who, despite seeing their club make a preliminary final from the last rung in the post-season picture, failed to land a big fish in the off-season, now requiring young midfielders to take a leap to cover the loss of James Worpel in the middle.
The Giants could be expected to join them from fifth, a position that has also seen nine teams miss finals the following year from there since 2010. Will the last three seasons of September heartbreak finally break this GWS core, who have continued to overcome adversity as the league's smallest club?
Recent history suggests that Fremantle will be the third team to make way in 2026, though that is hard to assume due to the club's emerging list of young stars and forward line depth.
| Team Ladder Position | Times failed to make finals the next year (since 2010) |
| 1st | 5 |
| 2nd | 3 |
| 3rd | 3 |
| 4th | 3 |
| 5th | 9 |
| 6th | 9 |
| 7th | 5 |
| 8th | 10 |
