GEELONG, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 28: Mitch Duncan of the Cats marks the ball ahead of Liam Duggan of the Eagles during the 2019 AFL round 06 match between the Geelong Cats and the West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium on April 28, 2019 in Geelong, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos)

Well, here we are again. Round 19 and it’s all to play for in one of the most even competitions this century.

Champion Data has crunched the numbers and it makes for an interesting read. Starting on Friday night they predict the Tigers to topple the Pies in a game which goes a long way to deciding who gets the double chance.

They’ve also got the Lions to play at the Gabba at least twice in the finals as well as Geelong and West Coast to play against each other in week one, rounding out the top four.

GWS and Essendon appear safe with nice runs home and are unlikely to swap positions meaning the Bombers will have to travel at least once if they are to make the big dance.

Adelaide is predicted to hold their nerve but a slip up to either St Kilda or Carlton will likely rule out their chances. Their cross-town rivals Port Adelaide would be next in line to jump them to eighth spot and have a shot at Collingwood in week one of the finals.

At the other end of the ladder. The Suns need three wins from five and Champion Data don’t give them hope, so they’ve got a second wooden spoon this decade to look forward too.

Carlton, Melbourne and Sydney are fighting for 15th-17th with the latter two both playing against the Saints in big clashes for their pride.

Although Champion Data has Carlton in 17th, is it in Melbourne’s best interest to get that #2 Draft pick in a stacked year of a talent?

Then we have the contenders…

We’ve singled Port as the best of the rest to make the eight but realistically there are five teams with a sniff.

North was cruelly handed a blow at the hands of the umpire and with a tough run home, they are only a 2% chance of playing finals football.

Fremantle has been given the hardest chance by Champion Data who see Ross Lyon only getting to 13th despite having three very winnable games remaining.

Hawthorn is right up there with Port and a nice percentage sees them closing in on another Clarkson miracle.

Lose to Brisbane and that’s probably it with the numbers suggesting it will happen but don’t write them off. It’s a similar situation for the Dogs who also play Brisbane and a loss would end their hopes too.

Oh… and St Kilda will finish 14th, around where they always seem to be.


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