On Wednesday morning (AEST) the NBA held its annual Draft lottery that takes the 14 teams that failed to make the playoffs and distinguishes each team's probability of what pick they get by their record.

This year's NBA standings resulted in three teams with the three worst records given a 14 per cent chance of winning the first pick. The lottery sees 14 ping pong balls are numbered 1-14 and placed into a lottery machine that shakes for 20 seconds, with the first ball being removed before the machine shakes for 10 more seconds and then the second ball is picked out.

There are 1,001 combinations possible, however 1,000 of those combinations are assigned to the bottom four teams

This process happens until the fourth ball is drawn and the combination drawn matches with a combination assigned to a team, then that team gets the first pick. This method continues until the fourth pick.

Every pick after that is decided by how the NBA teams were ranked by win-loss record.

Over the years, this system has been suggested by various fans and figures across the league. But what would be the positives and negatives of a system such as this in the AFL?

First of all, the bottom ten teams would likely be considered to participate, following a similar structure to deny teams in the finals of having a chance of getting the first pick.

A major positive is that if the league had any teams tanking for the first pick, it's no guarantee that losing on purpose would give them the first pick.

But if the bottom teams genuinely did have a poor season due to injury or rebuilding and teams all shared the same record, they wouldn't need to be concerned about missing out on crucial help that they require from the draft as they still have a chance to get the first pick. This would be of benefit towards teams like the Eagles, who have been decimated by injuries this year.

On the negative side, people are concerned that teams that just missed the finals who might've been on the verge of making finals or who were in the eight for some time might get the first pick, which may be unfair compared to the struggling teams.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 28: First round draft selections (Front L-R) Bailey Humphrey of the Suns, Oliver Hollands of the Blues, Jaspa Fletcher of the Lions, Jhye Clark of the Cats, (Middle Row L-R) George Wardlaw of the Kangaroos, Will Ashcroft of the Lions, Aaron Cadman of the Giants, Harry Sheezel of the Kangaroos, Elijah Tsatas of the Bombers, (Back Row L-R) Reuben Ginbey of the Eagles, Cameron Mackenzie of the Hawks, Jedd Busslinger of the Bulldogs and Mattaes Phillipou of the Saints pose for a photo during the 2022 NAB AFL Draft at Marvel Stadium on November 28, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

An example of such would be if Carlton finished ninth and stunningly received the first pick, then expected to add Harley Reid to an already star-studded midfield.

A system like this may also affect 'father-son' picks, trades, and of course the draft point value system. This could be an issue as teams won't know the value of their pick until after the lottery, which may affect trades.

Hypothetically, if the AFL did use this process, the draft pick ladder could look something like this:

Hawthorn: 18% (chance of drawing Pick 1)

West Coast Eagles: 18%

North Melbourne: 18%

GWS Giants: 13%

Sydney Swans: 9%

Richmond: 7.5%

Fremantle: 6.5%

Gold Coast Suns: 5%

Essendon: 3.5%

Carlton: 1.5%

These percentages are only predictions and may not be the final percentages if a process was to be added. The percentages add up to 100. Numbers may vary depending on win-loss records and percentages. If a team has a more competitive percentage and win-loss record, the lower their draft odds should be.

Fans also want the AFL to encourage a winning mentality to avoid a system like this or implement a workd football-like method where poor-performing teams are relegated down a division (e.g. AFL team gets moved down to a state league level competition and the best-performing state league team are promoted). But a promotion-relegation conecpt wouldn't work under the league's current structure, with reserve teams already participating in the VFL, SANFL and WAFL, and certain clubs teams may be unable to cater to AFL standards.

So would the lottery method work?

It would mean an overhaul of the current system and verification of the percentages in the lottery. Some fans say that it is unnecessary to consider, while others believe it could be part of the league in the future to help increase the risk of bottom sides being susceptible to losing automatic access to Pick 1.