Last Season
Sydney's run of nine-straight finals appearances ended in 2019, finishing 15th in their lowest ladder position since 1995. Despite this, there were positives for the Swans despite their ladder position.
The Swans decided to rejuvenate their list, finishing 2019 with the youngest team on average during the final rounds of the season. This direction to pump games in their youngsters led to Sydney finishing the year with an average team experience of 85, seventh-least in the league, a move which could pay dividends in future seasons.
Also, despite finishing with 14 losses, Sydney finished with the lowest ever average losing margin per game with -19.5, with five of those losses being less than 10 points.
Contested possessions were a major problem for the Swans last season, finishing 18th for the first time since the statistic has been recorded. This lack of midfield grunt sees them create goals from their back half 22% of the time, the most in the AFL.
Off-Season
In: Lewis Taylor (Brisbane), Dylan Stephens (Pick 5, Norwood), Will Gould (Pick 26, Glenelg), Elijah Taylor (Pick 36, Perth), Chad Warner (Pick 39, East Fremantle), Barry O'Connor (Category B Rookie), Brady Rowles (Pick 4 Rookie Draft), Sam Gray(Port Adelaide)
Out: Jarrad McVeigh (Retired), Kieren Jack (Retired), Nick Smith (Retired), Heath Grundy (Retired), Darcy Cameron (Collingwood), Zak Jones (St Kilda), Daniel Menzel (Delisted), Jack Maibaum (Delisted), Toby Pink (Delisted), Cody Hirst (Delisted), James Rose (Delisted), Durak Tucker (Delisted)
Off-season grade: C-
The Swans did not set the world on fire with their off-season moves but did make two cheaply available but potentially impactful recruits in Lewis Taylor and Sam Gray who add depth to the Swans list.
Draft night placed the Swans with an unusual position in having a top 5 draft pick with Dylan Stephens being selected with pick 5. The midfielder has impressed so far in pre-season and is an outside chance for selection early in the season.
Sydney suffered loss to their ruck depth with Darcy Cameron being traded to Collingwood after limited opportunities at the Swans while dependable wingman Zak Jones departed for St Kilda.
Defining Period
The defining period of the season for Sydney will come from rounds 8-11 when the Swans face four of the teams projected to finish in or around the top eight.
They will first face West Coast in Perth before traveling to the MCG for a match with Hawthorn. Sydney will return home to then face last year's minor premiers Geelong before returning to the MCG to face premiers Richmond.
How the young Swans perform against these four teams will go a long way to determine how their 2020 will play out and what to expect from Sydney in the future.
Best 22
B: Aliir Aliir, Dane Rampe, Jake Lloyd
HB: Jordan Dawson, Tom McCartin, Callum Mills
C: Isaac Heeney, Josh Kennedy, Ollie Florent
HF: Lewis Taylor, Lance Franklin, Nick Blakey
F: Will Hayward, Sam Reid, Tom Papley
FOLL: Callum Sinclair, George Hewett, Luke Parker
I/C: Harry Cunningham, Sam Naismith, Colin O’Riordan, James Rowbottom
Despite struggling for game time at Brisbane last season, Lewis Taylor should slot straight into the Swans' best 22. Fellow recruit Sam Gray should provide strong competition for the youth but will not immediately feature in their best come round one. With Buddy Franklin again under an injury cloud, expect strong competition for his spot for round one.
Champion Data says
"It was a rebuild in disguise last season for the Swans, who were the second-youngest team on average each week. This year, they have the fourth youngest list and the third least experienced team. It's a list we aren't accustomed to seeing from this side.
"An abundance of youth along with seasoned campaigners still performing to a high level, added to the fact they should've finished higher up the ladder last year, all points to a quick bounce back in 2020."
Strengths and Weaknesses
The greatest strength for Sydney would be the balance they have between ever-dependable seasoned stars and promising youth players across all areas of ground. Dane Rampe and Jake Lloyd offer a great deal of experience and versatility to up and coming Swans Jordan Dawson, Callum Mills and Lewis Melican.
Midfield brutes Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker will continue to shine at the heart of John Longmire's side while giving a first-hand experience of how to win the ball at the coal-face to the likes of Oliver Florent and newly recruited top-five selection Dylan Stephens. As for their forward structure? Lance Franklin and Sam Reid host a great deal of natural skill as key position players to nurture 2018 first-round pick Nick Blakey while being able to rely on Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley at their feet.
Funnily enough, the weakness for Sydney is their contested ballwork and centre clearances. A side with Parker and Kennedy at their centre bounces shouldn't sit at 18th in the league for both contested possessions and centre bounce clearances differential last year, but they did. The midfield duo averaged over 12 contested touches a game each in 2019 - but as a whole side, they fell 11 contested possessions behind their opponents per game and were losing the centre bounce clearance rate by 1.9 on average per match.
Prediction: 15th
A fit Sydney side is a strong Sydney side. If they can get close to 20 games out of Buddy Franklin and see great leaps from the likes of Heeney, Mills, Florent or Blakey they may just be back in the September mix. The criticism they receive, if any, will fall onto how the result of their off-season. The fitness of their veterans and natural improvement of rising stars will determine just how far they will go in 2020.
