It’s that time of year again when the best player of the competition is named and awarded the Brownlow medal.
Here are the top 10 contenders to take out the 2019 Brownlow medal according to our good friends at Stats Insider:
Stats Insider has taken a completely new approach to Brownlow Medal modelling, using in-game and historical statistics to identify the DNA of a 3-vote worthy game, whilst also diving into the human element of an umpire’s voting perception.
Download the complete 2019 Brownlow Medal report at Stats Insider by clicking here.
Stats Insider’s top 10 contenders
Dunkley is only a 0.18% chance to win the medal, but the young Bulldog shot into the Brownlow discussion after a brilliant second half of the season. Dunkley averaged 28.3 disposals per game for the Dogs, while also averaging 6.1 tackles per game. He is an up and coming star of the competition and one to watch for in the coming years.
Treloar is a mere 0.27% chance to win the Brownlow, but the Pies star had yet another brilliant season, leading the entire AFL in total disposals (767 disposals) on an average of 33.3 disposals per game. Treloar’s running power and ability to find the ball consistently were a massive factor in the Pies’ top four finish and he should poll well.
Cripps is a 2.8% chance to take home the Charlie and was the big shining light all year for a young Carlton team, averaging 28 disposals per game and 6.2 tackles per game. In games where Carlton won or were very competitive, Cripps should poll well for the Blues and could be a sneaky chance to crack the top 5 come the end of the night.
7. Tim Kelly (Geelong)
Kelly is a 2.9% chance for the Brownlow medal and should poll well given the Cats’ strong 2019 season. Kelly averaged 25.5 disposals and 4.3 tackles per game in 2019, and was massively influential all season for a Geelong team that was the team to beat for the most part of the season.
6. Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs)
Macrae is a 3.7% chance to win on the back of a fantastic 2019 season which saw him join Adam Treloar as the leading disposal getter in the entire competition. Macrae averaged 33.3 disposals per game and was a major factor in a Bulldogs midfield loaded with talent. Should poll consistently.
5. Brodie Grundy (Collingwood)
Grundy is a 4.4% chance for the medal and really staked his claim as the best ruckman in the competition with a brilliant and consistent showing all season. Grundy averaged 21.1 disposals per game whilst also averaging 41.1 hit outs per game. Grundy has been the man all season for the Pies in the ruck and could sneakily poll very well.
Neale is a 7.5% chance of taking out the Brownlow after a fantastic first season in a Brisbane Lions outfit. Neale averaged 31.5 disposals per game in 2019 including a 51 disposal performance against Richmond in round 23. Neale looks primed to poll well in a Brisbane team that performed well all season long.
3. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
Bontempelli has an 18.1% chance of taking out the Brownlow medal and seems a good bet to cause a stir in the pot and poll very well, especially given his start to the season and the Bulldogs’ fantastic finish to the season as a whole. Bontempelli averaged 26.3 disposals and 5.0 tackles per game in 2019, but it’s not the stats that attract, it’s the influence he has on games, and due to that reason, the Bont should poll very well.
2. Nat Fyfe (Fremantle)
Fyfe is a 22.9% chance to win the Brownlow and is always a name that shines bright in the eyes of the umpires. Fyfe had another brilliant season, averaging 29.2 disposals per game and was the major influence in all things surrounding the Dockers. Fyfe will yet again poll well and is a serious chance of taking out the medal.
1.Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)
The favourite to take out the Brownlow, Dangerfield is a 55.7% chance to win the medal and was an ever imposing presence for the Cats all season long. Danger averaged 27.5 disposals, 5.0 marks and 4.3 tackles per game and was the key man for the ladder leading Cats throughout the season. Danger’s finish to the season was particularly immense, and the star Cat should poll very well and is a deserving favourite for the award.