There is only one round left in the 2021 AFL home and away season. So who will come out on top? Will the Bulldogs be able to stay in the top four? And who will fill the last two spots in the eight? Most of us love to bet on sports, and these are the questions we must ask ourselves before we pick our selections. Winning form is good form, and the pre-finals record of recent Grand Finalists reveals that it also refers to a more substantial chance of September success – but one team appears susceptible in this year's late-season form ladder.
Form
Only two of the top-four teams will have a winning record heading into this year's Toyota AFL Finals Series. In a tense last encounter, the Western Bulldogs take on Port Adelaide, while Geelong takes on Melbourne. The results of two critical matches will determine who plays who in the first week of finals, especially with Brisbane still in contention to leapfrog the Bulldogs and get a double chance. Who wins and loses this week, though, will determine which clubs have the form to go all the way, or at least make it to the season's final game.
Only two clubs have lost in the final home and away round in the last ten years and gone on to win the flag: Sydney in 2012 and the Bulldogs in 2016. The Bulldogs had to win a staggering four finals to win the club's second-ever flag, but the Swans' last premiership squad was even more perplexing. The 2012 premiers were defeated in the final two rounds and three of the final four before regaining their form and winning three consecutive finals. Only four previous clubs – Collingwood in 2011, Fremantle in 2013, Sydney in 2014, and Adelaide in 2017 – have lost in the last round and come back to make the Grand Final, despite falling short.
Seven of the past ten Grand Final winners have dropped none, or at most one, match in the final five rounds after finishing the regular season on a winning note. The Tigers are the only premiers in the recent decade to have a perfect record in the five or more games leading up to the finals, and they did it twice: in 2020 and in 2019. According to the current form table, the Power is on a five-match winning streak, while the Cats and Swans are the only top-six clubs to win four of their last five games.
Stability
The Cats and Bulldogs have been hit hard by injuries to essential players Tom Stewart and Josh Bruce, while the Swans' lucky streak of fit players ended when Nick Blakey was ruled out for the season. On the other hand, the current top-six teams will enter finals with generally healthy rosters and have mostly had stable lineups throughout the season. Eight of the past ten premiers have had at least half of their team play 20 or more matches throughout the home and away rounds.
By far, The Demons have had the most consistent lineup this season, with ten players appearing in all 21 rounds, five missing only one match, and two others missing two. As a result, outside of their core group of 17, the Demons are frequently left with only five starting places to fill. In the last decade, Sydney was the only Grand Finalist to have a similarly established lineup, with 18 players appearing in at least 20 home and away matches.
So far this season, the Lions have had nine players start every game, with five of them missing only one. With eight permanent players and four players who have played in 20 games, the Power aren't far behind. The Bulldogs of 2016 are an aberration, as are many of these historical statistics. Only seven players played 20 or more home and away games, compared to the 10-year average of 11.7. In Round 23, almost all of the current top-six teams have a lot to play for, so they're unlikely to rest too many players or alter a stable lineup.
Except for the Gold Coast Suns, who only joined the league in 2011, every AFL team has played in at least one of the 22 Grand Finals since 1999, showing that practically every club and their fans have enjoyed prosperous periods and had the opportunity to attain ultimate glory.
Throughout its illustrious history, Australian Rules Football has produced numerous memorable moments. This year doesn't look any different, as at this late stage in the season; we still have twelve teams who could potentially lift the flag. This will undoubtedly go down as one of the closest AFL seasons in history, and we, for one, cannot wait to see how it pans out.
