St Kilda's destiny was in their own hands for much of the 2022 season.
Now, precariously placed outside of the eight, four points behind an eighth placed Carlton outfit, it seems more than unlikely that the Saints will be joining the upper echelon of the competition in the September action.
Yet mere months ago, Brett Ratten's men were sitting in the top four with a win-loss tally solidly in their favour. So where did it all go wrong?
Heading into 2022, there was almost a feeling of optimism around the Saints. The side failed to make finals in 2021 after an impressive 2020, but many in red, black and white thought, perhaps more hoped, that this was nothing more than a blip on their upward trajectory.
After 22 rounds of football this season, the hope that 2021 was an outlier is all but extinguished.
A fascinating element of St Kilda's 2022 campaign is that really, it's a tale of two seasons. The first half of the year saw the Saints climb into the top four, win on the road and play some scintillating footy. The club that returned from the bye though, did anything but.
Wins against Fremantle and Geelong were impressive, while some losses, like Round 14's performance against Essendon, were worrying. Aptly, the Saints' rollercoaster up and down the form ladder is quite indicative of the problem at the forefront of RSEA Park, with the club currently sitting within football's no man's land - seemingly too good to rebuild, not good enough to contend.
Ratten though, in his third full season as senior coach, showed enough in those early wins to earn a new deal to remain in the top job at the Saints, now contracted through to the end of 2024, taking him through what should be St Kilda's premiership window.
But with the ink barely dry on his new deal, the 51-year-old is now staring down the barrel of missing finals for the second consecutive year and facing a publicly unspoken*, but pressing, mandate to deliver some September success. So what has gone wrong?
The Saints moved away from the draft in recent seasons, preferring to lean towards an aggressive trade strategy. The club acquired Dan Hannebery, Zak Jones, Brad Crouch and Jack Higgins, among others, in a bid to bring some older, more established talent to a building side.
These moves marked St Kilda's unspoken, but apparent, shift to contend for a flag in the coming years. That flag though now seems just as far away as it did in 2019 when so many of these decisions were made.
While the AFL has seen dynasties come and go, club rebuilds work, and teams falter over the past decade, the Saints have instead erred on the side of being consistently average to just not good at all.
A full rebuild following the Ross Lyon era saw yet another wooden spoon head to Moorabbin in 2014, and outside of a finals campaign in the COVID-disrupted 2020 season, the club has been painfully middle of the road.
Unlike many of their finals rivals, St Kilda aren't packed to the rafters with established talent, nor a flock of genuine young stars. The side, through a mix of trading and drafting, is an amalgamation of first-round draft picks, rookie pick-ups and rival recruits.
They seemingly have enough experience and a decent enough age profile that on paper they should be contending come September, but in reality, they're not good enough.
What St Kilda lacks, despite the wishes of the list management department, is A-grade talent.
Heading into Round 23, the Saints rank fifth competition wide for most clangers per game and have a kicking efficiency of 66.8%, just 0.3% higher than the league average.
The Saints' three most efficient users of the ball, the backline trio of Callum Wilkie, Dougal Howard and Jimmy Webster, are all part of the club's ageing brigade.
High-profile recruit Hannebery, while it hasn't worked out as they would have hoped, was the right kind of player the Saints needed to target at the time.
The former Swan possesses two things that the side needs more of, strong leadership on the field and the skill level needed to take on the game. Hannebery though, has now announced his retirement after just 17 games with the club across four years and a series of injuries.
Hannebery isn't the only veteran on the Saints' list. 34-year-old Paddy Ryder, another recruit, remains out-of-contract for next season. While Bradley Hill, yet another mature recruit over the last five years, turned 29 last month.
The Saints, fascinatingly, had the second youngest list in the competition in 2019. This year, they are ranked fifth oldest competition wide, with an average age of 24.8 years and 69.2 games played.
Of those on the list under 25, seven have played more than ten games so far in 2022. The young trio taken in the 2021 AFL draft, Mitch Owens (5 games), Marcus Windhager (16 games) and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (15 games) all look like players of the future, but casting our eyes further back shows where the Saints are in trouble.
2020 draft picks Matthew Allison and Tom Highmore have both struggled to break into the side, while 2019 picks Ryan Byrnes (unused medical sub five times this season), Leo Connolly (yet to play in 2022) and Jack Bell (delisted) haven't aged as an excellent draft hand.
It's not all doom and gloom at the Saints though, captain Jack Steele is locked away until the end of 2027, as is Rowan Marshall, while young guns Owens and Windhager will both remain in the red, white and black until at least the end of 2024, as will the highly rated Jack Sinclair.
The man often presented as the face of the club's future success, Max King, has inked a deal to remain the Saints' tall target up forward until 2026.
Any finals success in the coming years will undoubtedly be built around these names; the tireless captain and his young flock of developing Saints. That success, notably, doesn't look set to occur during the playing span of many of those sought-after mature trade targets.
The Saints' bold plans didn't pay off, and for now it seems that their premiership window is creaking shut despite the fierce determination of those within the football club to keep it open.
Prior to Round 23 though, it seems as if a concession has been made from the club on the reality of where things really sit.
A comprehensive review of the menโs football program was announced on Thursday, led by club President Andrew Bassat and including former North Melbourne coach David Noble. The review, notably, will include an external review of the club's list.
Where the Saints go from here will be fascinating viewing. Around the competition, Richmond have managed to rebuild on the run, with young recruits seemingly fitting in with ease to replace the Tigers' ageing stars and prevent a drastic tumble down the ladder.
Jordan De Goey, who has been linked to a move to Moorabbin, won't plug the holes in talent and any players picked up through the draft (the Saints currently hold picks 9, 27, 46, 63 and 81) will take years to develop.
HEAVEN OR HELL:ย Can St Kilda afford to roll the dice on De Goey?
There are few certainties in football, even fewer when it comes to the perennially luckless Saints. But if someone was to wager today that the club was closer to a 28th wooden spoon than a second premiership cup,ย would you bet against it?ย
