The Brownlow medal count is fast approaching, with the 2019 tally set to be one of the tightest the league has seen for some time.
As the countdown for the AFL’s ‘night of nights’ begins to end, the marketing for which player will be crowned the league’s greatest heats up.
Dangerfield, Neale, Bontempelli, Cripps and Fyfe all stand a chance for the ‘Charlie’ while several dark horses including Grundy, Kelly and Macrae have backers of their own.
So when it comes to picking the winner, punters will be keen to know which star players have a three-vote game locked in, and which have company for the maximum votes.
Stats Insider have produced a regression model for picking the probability for Brownlow Votes in each game in 2019, including variables beyond in-game statistics that make their model as robust as possible.
This model includes a more ‘human element’, as the algorithm looks to include voting by various media outlets, along with using the final votes from the AFL Coaches Association (AFLCA) voting for the league’s best afield.
The percentage for a player to receive three Brownlow votes is derived from the outcome of both the AFLCA voting and media outlets across 10,000 simulations of the 2019 season.
For example, if a player is to receive a percentage of 68.8% to collect three Brownlow votes in a single match, they may have collected three votes from one outlet, two votes from another outlet and six votes from the AFLCA voting for a total of 11 votes out of a maximum 16 media votes (3+3+10). This result is expressed as a percentage (68.8%) to collect maximum votes from the corresponding match.
To the surprise of many, Brisbane Lions recruit Jared Lyons sits atop our three votes probability list with a staggering 92.5% chance of taking out the maximum amount of votes.
Lyons collected 30 touches (23 contested), 13 clearances, 10 score involvements and two goals in his sides 12-point win over the Kangaroos in round 18.
Geelong star Patrick Dangerfield is the most featured player in the top 20, with three placings, ahead of Sydney’s Luke Parker and Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines who took out two spots on the list.
Stunningly, Patrick Cripps’ performance against the Lions that saw the Blues star onballer collect 38 possessions (16 contested), eight clearances and four goals in what many described as the best individual performance of 2019, failed to reach the list with a three-vote percentage of 76.0%.
Download the complete 2019 Brownlow Medal report at Stats Insider by clicking here.
Top 20 chances for three vote games:
1. Jared Lyons (Bris), Round 18 vs North Melbourne – 92.5%
2. Liam Shiels (Haw), Round 18 vs Geelong – 90.0%
3. Luke Parker (Syd), Round 14 vs Hawthorn – 87.7%
4. Jade Gresham (Stk), Round 2 vs Essendon – 87.3%
5. Nat Fyfe (Fre), Round 21 vs St Kilda – 86.5%
6. Luke Parker (Syd), Round 8 vs Essendon – 86.3%
7. Tim Kelly (Geel), Round 8 vs North Melbourne – 85.7%
8. Dustin Martin (Rich), Round 9 vs Hawthorn – 85.4%
9. Seb Ross (Stk), Round 4 vs Hawthorn – 84.3%
10. Josh P. Kennedy (Syd), Round 23 vs St Kilda – 84.2%
11. Patrick Dangerfield (Geel), Round 3 vs Adelaide – 83.9%
12. Shaun Higgins (NM), Round 4 vs Adelaide – 83.1%
13. Jack Billings (Stk), Round 13 vs Gold Coast – 82.5%
14. Tom McDonald (Mel), Round 16 vs Carlton – 82.4%
15. Lachie Neale (Bris), Round 9 vs Adelaide – 82.1%
16. Jake Lloyd (Syd), Round 18 vs Fremantle – 81.7%
17. Ollie Wines (Port), Round 23 vs Fremantle – 81.4%
18=. Ollie Wines (Port), Round 5 vs West Coast – 81.2%
18=. Patrick Dangerfield (Geel), Round 11 vs Sydney – 81.2%
18=. Patrick Dangerfield (Geel), Round 21 vs North Melbourne – 81.2%